Mr. Yaser Tabbara Researcher at Omran Center for Strategic Studies, poses the question of international accountability in Syria's war, after a regime soldier has been prosecuted for a war crime. Mohammed Abdullah claimed asylum in Sweden in 2015. But activists recognized him from online photo, smiling, surrounded by dead bodies. So, instead of receiving refuge, he got an eight-month prison sentence for mistreating corpses.

Yaser Said: 8 month for something so horrific is a little bit more than a slap on the rest, but still it is significant being the first incident of international accountability for such crimes, he added that the lack of evidence are considered a major problem and a weak link for the universal jurisdiction. He answered the question of "what about the head commander committing these crimes?"; International criminal justice lacks enforceability, the Russian and Chinese have been putting the main obstacles to the international criminal court, that is purely because political reasons.

Yaser ended the interview saying that not all soldiers should be banned from asylum, it's all depend on their acts on the ground and on what they were force to do while the regime was committing his crimes, and to attain absolute justice is something most of the Syrian have given up on

Executive Summary

• The de-escalation zones from the latest Astana meeting on Syria aimed to freeze the conflict on the western fronts in order to deploy the regime and its allies’ forces to prevent a total loss of the eastern territories to the American-led Kurds and opposition forces. Securing Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut free passage is strategically more important compared to Idlib or Ghota at the moment.

• The agreement was largely observed by all parties (Russia, Turkey, and Iran) and resulted in an immediate reduction in military operations in the selected zones. Compared to the level of operations in March 2017, May/June 2017 witnessed an 80% reduction in western Rif of Aleppo, 75% in Eastern Rif of Aleppo, 97% in Idlib, 88% in Hama, 80% in Latakia, and 45% in Ghota of Damascus. There was a slight rise in military operations in Homs (8%) and a radical increase in Daraa (205%) but that increase was mainly attributed to vindictive offenses like in Homs, or tactical deterrence to the opposition as in Daraa’s al-Manshia district.

• The latest Geneva talks ended with no significant outcome, probably in anticipation of settling the current competition over Raqqa and Dir Ezzor. It is unlikely for Geneva to restore its significance before stabilizing the military situation and before the US and Russia move towards a serious political settlement.

• It is still too early to determine if the de-escalation zones can serve as a basis for a Russian strategy to stabilize the situation on the ground and foster an environment conducive to a political solution. The outcome of the battles on the ground in the East and the sustainability of ceasefire in the West will determine such an outcome. Neither easy nor quick dominance in the East is in sight for either side. Particularly because of the proxy nature of the operations, lack of cohesion between the participating forces, and unprofessionalism of the local forces aligned with the Americans (Kurds and opposition forces) and Russians (tribal forces and Fifth Corps).

• Nor will there be a clam west, as HTS (al-Nusra coalition) will aim to expand and exhaust the moderate forces with potential reactions from the latter. Accelerated foreign contact, including by the Russians, with the Local Administration Councils (LACs) in the de-escalation zones is expected in order to secure influence during the transition period.

• This paper argues that the political opposition should unite its negotiations delegations and increase its capacity and legitimacy. The military opposition should support the political process and provide views on its role in the future. The LACs should focus on their service delivery role and improve their capacity to meet the tasks of reconstruction and return of refugees. More important for the Local Councils is to avoid local politicization and alignment with either regional or global actors in order to protect their neutrality as guarantors of a stable future for Syria.

• The US and EU should support forming a united negotiation delegation for the opposition as a political solution might be looming on the horizon, especially after the situation in a post-ISIS Raqqa and Dir Ezzor settles down. Notably, engagement in Russian-led Astana talks is important to develop critical ideas on a US-EU/Russia cooperation in the transitional period.

• Russia should support the legitimacy of the opposition delegations and refrain from undermining their efforts to effectively represent their Syrian constituency. More strategically, Russia should approach to the Local Councils, support their professional service delivery, and coordinate with their EU sponsors to assure fruitful cooperation in preserving their role in the future.

Map No. (1) Russian Proposal for Safe Zones

Introduction

The latest two peace negotiation rounds on Syria ended with postponing the serious discussions until after the dust settles in the east of Syria. The Astana meeting in Kazakhstan produced an agreement on de-escalation zones, supported by Russia, Turkey, and Iran and opposed by Syrian opposition representatives. Not surprisingly, the Geneva talks did not break the low ceiling of expectations and ended where it started. The de-escalation zones serve Russian interests on many fronts, the most important of which is freezing the West “hot spots” (Idlib, Hama and Homs) to focus on the eastern front where Russia aims to disturb the American-led operations to recapture Raqqa and Dir Ezzor on the border with Iraq. The post-ISIS-controlled areas constitute the next battleground and are, to a large extent, the determinant of the final balance of power among all parties in future negotiations. While the eastern fronts will be fluid and hardly stable, the western fronts will not be calm either.

A few weeks before signing the agreement in Astana, there was an immediate reduction in military operations in the selected zones. Compared to the level of operations in March 2017, May witnessed an 80% reduction in western Rif of Aleppo, 75% in Eastern Rif of Aleppo, 97% in Idlib, 88% in Hama, 80% in Latakia, and 45% in Ghota of Damascus, according to the information unit at Omran Center. Some exceptions to the main reduction in hostilities were observed in Homs (8%) and Daraa (205%), with some vindictive offenses in Homs and tactical deterrence of the opposition forces occurred in Daraa.

The opposition forces (i.e., HTS, Ahrar al-Sham, and some MOC-affiliated militias) in late April has occupied al-Manshiya district in southern-Daraa and threaten to advance further into the regime controlled areas in Daraa; therefore, the regime aims to stop their advancement by redeploying forces from around Damascus after solving the problem of Qaboon and Barza cities. The Ghaith al-Dalla forces of the fourth division have joined the Shite militias in the south (Hizbullah, Iranian Revolutionary Guard IRG, and the Fatimioun brigades) to stop the opposition advancement beyond al-Manshiya using aggressive, rather tactical, deterrence offenses. (see Table 1 for more details).

This paper addresses the context of the de-escalation zones and provides an overview of the situation in all of the active fronts in the east and west of Syria. It also includes three sets of recommendations to the Syrian opposition (Political, Military, and LACs), as well as recommendations to 1) the US and the EU and 2) Russia.

The analysis concludes that both the Russians and Americans rely on forces that lack central coordination, professionalism, and discipline. Such characteristics weaken control over the operations, hence making it almost impossible to predict their outcome and trajectory. This turbulent and cloudy situation will dominate for an extended period, given the absence of a political framework to accommodate ISIS members after their organization collapses and they escape to new havens. In turn, the western fronts will be busy with HTS attempts to expand geographically and weaken the moderate opposition politically. There also will be an international and regional race to influence the LACs, considered the black horse in any future efforts for stabilization in the de-escalation zones through humanitarian aid, the management of the return of refugees, and reconstruction shall security guarantees are offered.

Information Support Unit, Omran Centre for Strategic Studies

De-escalation in the West, Escalation in the East

While attention is refocused on Raqqa and Dir Ezzor in the east of Syria, the latest agreement signed in Astana helps to freeze the western fronts in order to reallocate resources and concentrate forces for the upcoming battles in the East. The fall of both Raqqa and Dir Ezzor to America’s proxies limits Damascus’ control over the borders, cuts Iranian routes from Tehran to Beirut through Baghdad and Damascus, and empowers America’s grip over both Iraq and Syria.

The protracted war has exhausted the regime forces and devastated its capabilities, and the long line of active fronts in the West has distracted its allies’ attention to the slow developments in the East. The advancement of the Syrian Democratic Forces towards Raqqa and the Southern Front opposition forces towards Dir Ezzor alerted the regime to a near loss of the borders with Iraq. There was a severe need to reallocate the regime from Idlib and Homs, where they can revert to them later, to the eastern fronts, where it is more pressing to secure a foothold.

The new battle needs more manpower and expertise. For these, the Russians and Iranians rushed to organize the tribal forces and integrate them into the Fifth Corps under Russian command. Hizbullah has recently, and rather quickly, given its positions in the South to the Russians and its positions on the Syrian-Lebanese borders to the Lebanese Army; Hizbullah redeployed their forces close to Palmyra. The latest efforts of Hizbullah serve two purposes: 1) to release tension with Israel and hence avert an Israeli attack on Hizbullah inside Syria, and 2) to use its shrinking manpower more strategically to protect its supply line from Tehran.

Recent news coming from Syria was dominated by the American alliance strikes against a military convoy for the Shia militias approaching al-Tanaf crossing, which was captured recently by the American-led forces. Days later, and in a sign of resolve, the alliance forces air-dropped brochures that “advises” the Shia militias to refrain from further approaching opposition-controlled areas. Russia might have to negotiate with the Americans to secure a place on the borders for the Iranians, but that will come at a high price and only if the Russians succeed in interrupting the connection between the Kurds coming from the North and the Opposition groups advancing from the South.

Map No. (2) Battle of Eastern Homs and Al Sham Desert- 31 May 2017

This context shows that the de-escalation zone agreement was neither a Russian secret plan to divide Syria, nor a Russian trap for the U.S. and its allied groups. It actually reflects a pressing need for Russia to freeze the conflict for six to twelve months in the areas that have no strategic urgency, such as Ghota in the South, where Israel is concerned, or where in-fighting and Turkish influence will shape the situation in a less costly way compared to a direct intervention, like in Idlib. At this moment, Dir Ezzor is strategically more important than Idlib, and Nura is less of a threat compared to losing the borders with Iraq to the Americans.

Controlling the borders will change many equations for the regime and its allies: it will challenge its attempts to reclaim control over all of the Syrian territories; it will block the Iranian routes to Hizbullah; and it will give Americans the upper hand in both Syria and Iraq. Russians have tried to avoid confrontations with the Americans since their intervention in 2015, and such a scenario with American-proxy domination of the East and South might lead to undesirable tensions. More important, it is possible that at any moment the pressure of American proxies from the East and South on the regime areas will reverse the military vulnerability that Russia has successfully avoided in Syria so far. Consequentially, it is possible that Russia will be forced to accept a settlement that is not optimal to its interests.

The details of the agreement promise a successful implementation, but the absence of any follow-up or enforcement mechanisms make any euphoria disappear. There are sections of the agreement on international forces and monitoring mechanisms, guarantors, humanitarian access, refugees return, and reconstruction—all dependent on moderate forces restoring security and fighting terrorist groups. The possibility that moderates will be blamed for future acts of terrorists may cause rifts. The moderates will have to either essentially self-destruct by intensifying the in-fighting or face the threat of invasion or bombing by the Russians and the regime. The latest coalitions of HTS (al-Nusra coalition) will not be weakened or reversed before reaching a comprehensive political solution that could encourage small groups and individuals to defect and motivate the militia as an overall body to engage in a national Syrian military and political effort that meets its expectations.

Within the context, rather than the text, of the agreement, Turkey has agreed with Russia to deal with HTS in Idlib, an arduous task. Without a political settlement, Turkey will find itself facing increasingly disgruntled military groups that have the capacity to threaten the depth of the Turkey. There is little in the agreement that justifies the Turkish presence or its acceptance of the Iranian guarantees. However, given the Turkish sensitivities towards any expansion of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is dominated by the YPG and its PKK connections, Turkish cooperation with Russia becomes less questionable. The Turks have an interest in depriving the Kurds from having a seat at the negotiating table to determine Syria’s future. Moreover, with current challenges in Turkish-American relations, any increase in U.S. presence in both Syria and Iraq potentially diminish the regional influence of Turkey. The Turks find themselves implicitly allying with the Russians and Iranians, against the Kurds and the Americans.

The US and the EU did not pay attention to the Astana conference from the beginning in order to avoid reducing the importance of Geneva to Russian-led talks and to comply with their Iran marginalization policy. Militarily, The Americans did not respond to Aleppo’s fall or Idlib’s suffer because there were considered out of their strategic influence zones. Alternatively, Americans invested heavily in the Kurds and the southern groups in cooperation with the UK and Jordan in order to capture ISIS-dominated areas in the East. That will not only increase the areas under their control but also will increase the US legitimacy as successful forces in fighting terrorism. The US hope that strategy will create a new situation that will force the regime and its allies to negotiate seriously, by American terms, in Geneva or otherwise. In the meanwhile, the Europeans did not break their silence on Astana either. The EU focuses only on Geneva and is suspicious of Russia’s efforts. The Russians failed to buy their support to Astana despite the incentives inserted in the agreement by promising the return of refugees and reconstruction.

Indetermination in the East, and slow fire in the West

Against the clarity of the parties’ plans, the realities on the ground might tell a different story. Looking more closely at the formation of the competing forces racing towards Raqqa and Dir Ezzor, it appears that they are neither professional nor disciplined nor coherent in their composition or end goals. That will likely result in a non-linear path towards domination, lasting a long time and resulting in a high number of civilian causalities. The Syrian Democratic Forces are perceived to be YPG-dominated, which may provoke an armed resistance by the Arabs of Raqqa, especially in cases of brutal conduct against civilians conducted by the YPG. That scenario will slow the SDF’s advancement towards the South and will force it to prematurely withdraw leaving a power and governance vacuum behind. The rest of the American-supported groups, such as Maghawer al-Thawra, the Lions of Sharkia, Shahid Ahmed Abdou Brigades, and Ahmed al-Garba forces in al-Hassaka, are no more disciplined and will bring the same problems.

The situation for the Assad regime and Hizbullah might look brighter, but threats of American air attacks and Russia’s decision to refrain from a direct confrontation will neutralize this advantage. The rest of the regime-aligned forces will include the nascent groups working under the Fifth Corps, such as the tribal forces, whose capabilities are still questionable. The Russians bet on filling the vacuum in Dir Ezzor after the failure of the American-led forces to establish control. That gamble indicates that the battle will not be settled any time soon and its outcome is uncertain.

The distraction from the western fronts does not exclude them from the spot light. HTS (al-Nusra coalition) will try to expand geographically and attract more groups and individuals to its coalition in order to weaken the moderates’ body. That might be countered if the newly formed Turkish-led forces succeed in uniting all moderates under the Euphrates Shield zone and advances into Idlib. Other interesting events include the race to contact and empower the LACs in Idlib and northern Aleppo as a humanitarian and development player in a future political transition or a stable ceasefire. Europeans and Americans have been a strategic partner of the LACs, and now also the Russians are looking for a place in Idlib and other de-escalation zones. All powers will seek to improve the capacity and legitimacy of the LACs, but competing over the political alignment of the LACs is counterproductive. The use of LACs as political tools for any party will undermine their role as professional service providers and as a popular medium between the government and the local population.

Recommendations for the opposition and international players:

1-      The political opposition: Starkly, there were no Syrian signatories to the agreement, neither the government nor the opposition. This suggests that Syrians have lost control over the trajectory of the war in their own country. In Astana, the Syrians are observers rather than participants in any discussions concerning their cause, a position in Astana that disregards them no less than in Geneva. It is of interest to all parties, except for the Assad regime and Iran, to support the opposition in both conference. For that, there is a need to increase the capacity and legitimacy of the delegations. This can be achieved through:

• Uniting the delegations of both Astana and Geneva in consultation with the opposition allies. Merging the military weight of the Astana delegation with the regional and international recognition of the Geneva delegation will make one solid front in both venues. This will not happen without a show of will from the two delegations and without some pressure on the allies—specifically Turkey and Saudi Arabia. These efforts entail recalibrating the current political and military establishments of the opposition in order to accommodate such overdue restructuring.
• Increasing the technical capabilities of the delegation. Ever since Geneva I meetings in 2012, the opposition has needed to boost its capacity to conduct negotiations with the regime regarding myriad issues from humanitarian coordination to security reform, from reconstruction to the return of refugees. It is a mistake to assume that a constitution and elections will dominate the discussions. For example, the current de-escalation zones agreement includes minute details on the observers’ mechanisms and the international force composition and mandate, which are often out of the ream of expertise of unspecialized military officers. The failure to provide such capabilities will lead the delegation to blindly agree to unfavorable terms or unwittingly refuse to sign potentially favorable agreements.
• Increasing the legitimacy of the united delegation. Two dilemmas face the Syrian delegations in both Astana and Geneva: one is weak communication with their wider constituencies inside and outside of Syria; the other is the disconnect among local actors in the opposition-controlled area.
  • Communicate with Syrians inside and outside of Syria. There is a need to improve the level and means of communication with Syrians in general, and especially those who count as natural constituency inside and outside of Syria. Direct messages 1) before negotiation rounds to explain the goals, 2) during the negotiations to elaborate on the development, and 3) after the end of rounds to summarize and hint on the future steps. It is possible to lose the message when there are too many delegations, each claiming to represent the Syrian cause.
  • Communication with local elements in Syria. The more local support the more legitimacy is secured in the eyes of the international community. In Astana, the militias represent power brokers on the ground, but they still cannot speak for other elements like local councils. Geneva talks represent political elements and regional clout where more players on the ground are excluded. The political body of the opposition is responsible for securing the physical needs of its constituency and representing its demands. The failure to play that role casts doubt on its legitimacy.

2-      The military opposition: The political opposition might look incompetent and unrepresentative to Syrians on the ground who have made significant sacrifices, but without the opposition it would be doubtful to receive political acknowledgement from the international community and hence weaken the possibility to transform the military achievements of Syrians on the ground into an institutionalized political gain. The military factions have hard tasks as they are responsible for defending their territories, as well as supporting the political process at once. The overall weight of the Syrian opposition does not give room for more than one delegation. Therefore, we recommend the following:

• Pressuring to unite the negotiations delegation. The political opposition needs the militias’ help to coordinate the efforts and to lobby the allies in order to support merging the two delegations.
  • Providing a vision for the militias’ role in the transition period and the future Syria. Specific answers about the militias’ willingness and ability to professionally deliver security during the transition period, disarmament conditions, and integration in one united Syrian Army are much needed. Without clear and detailed answers to these questions, the negotiations process will be harder and all of the opposition’s sacrifices will be wasted. That eventually will transform the discontented fighter into a ticking time bomb in the future.

3-      The Local Councils: The LACs are an important Syrian asset for future stabilization and should be preserved at any cost. Therefore, we suggest the following:

• Focus on professionalism in delivering services indiscriminately to all Syrians regardless of their faith, gender, and ideology.
• Boost the LACs legitimacy by observing the elections cycles and avoid any political or ideological aligning.
  • Assure transparency in all transactions with donors to avoid any side deals with any harmful regional or international coalitions in the future.

4-      The US and the EU: Both entities can enhance the substance of the current negotiations in Astana and Geneva, as well as facilitate the institutional transition through the following:

• Stepping up the US and the EU involvement in Astana on the political and technical level to assure better agreements in terms of implementation and following-up mechanisms. That would make it harder to be ignored and will reemphasize the US and EU’s responsible position towards the Syrian cause.
• Supporting efforts to unite the Syrian delegations, both financially and technically. It is worth noting the importance of building a Syrian expertise base instead of the unsustainable reliance on costly and unproductive western consultancy companies.
  • Respect the professional and neutral aspects of the LACs and avoid pushing them into a polarized regional and international muddy field.

5-      Russia: There is a big room for Russia to reach quick and more effective results in resolving the conflict, improving the substance and outcome of the ongoing negotiations in Astana and Geneva, and facilitating the institutional transition through the following:

• Avoiding undermining the legitimacy of the opposition and show goodwill by not targeting their local constituencies and deterring the regime and the Iranians from the same. A strong and legitimate opposition can uphold the agreements and assure their implementation, while a weakened one is a guarantee for instability and prolonged war.
• Facilitating access of humanitarian aid to the opposition areas to build trust with Syrian citizens and also to support the legitimacy of the opposition in their eyes.
• Establishing a communication protocol with the opposition delegation to Astana and Geneva in order to improve the substance and outcome of the negotiation rounds. The opposition delegation should obtain all necessary information that enables it to effectively represent its cause and transform the outcome into concrete results.
• Respect the popular representation nature of the LACs and support their role as a professional service and security provider. Avoid any miscommunication that would result in delegitimizing them in the eyes of their constituency or their main sponsors. Russia can be a positive force to bring stability into the opposition areas by securing an environment conducive to the return of refugees and the reconstruction of infrastructure.
• Cooperate with European countries and the US on supporting the LACS. This can be a good venue for trust-building and de-escalation between the US and Russia in Syria.

Executive Summary

This paper evaluates and scrutinizes the various security apparatuses in Syria, starting with areas under the political control of the regime, then delving into those held by the opposition, and finally looking into the administratively autonomous regions. Elucidating the measures that must be taken to bring the security services under control, the paper presents a preliminary proposal that describes the security sector, it function, and relationship with the center and the periphery. The proposal seeks to strengthen the conditions of local empowerment while also protecting the stability and unity of the country.

First: The Security Situation in Areas Under the Political Control of the Regime

From the time that allied foreign militias began pouring into Syria and local military groups overseen by senior regime officials began to coalesce, the security apparatuses in regime-held areas could no longer be viewed as cohesive and subject to a regulated and centralized security force. The accumulation of the state security apparatuses’ failures and their inability to face the growing uprising helped to push the regime to take a series of measures that eroded its central hold over the security services. This process began with the formation of auxiliary local militias backed by either the Syrian army or state security services. These policies replaced the regime – and its concentrated authority within the military and security establishments – with mercenaries from among the local population belonging to armed militias that have grown and expanded in both size and influence over the past three years.

These groups represent a real danger to the regime if they slip from its control. For instance, if they develop a large base of followers on the ground and establish strong ties with the local community, this could enable them to both negotiate with the regime for control and influence and work with international groups to further their own special interests, which may conflict with those of the regime. Thus, in 2016, the regime made containing these groups a top priority by restricting the institutionalization of these groups and ensuring their loyalty as a way to safeguarding its own survival and achieving both balance and stability. In general, these measures have had the following consequences:

1. Granting local militias with the power to police the local population and carry out military missions among them.

2. Permitting militias’ security and military functions to grow beyond their localities, allowing most to become centralized militias with departments and branches.

3. Militarizing the community and linking its fate to the regime’s survival and continuity. This has increased the scale of the abuses and violations committed in the name of the state and its citizenry.

4. Institutionalizing these militias by virtue of economic necessity and transforming them into entities that encompass both military strategy and centralized security.

5. Creating military wings for political parties loyal to the Ba’ath Party and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP). This has strengthened these parties’ local authority and rendered them partner security forces linked to the state’s centralized security force through shared benefits and interests.

We Find that the Main Security Apparatuses in Regime-Held Areas are the Following:^([1]

1. National Defense Forces (NDF)

Formed in summer 2012 and considered to be by far the largest militia to back the regime, the NDF now encompasses over 100,000 volunteers and is comprised of units spread throughout the country that are overseen by the Syrian army and led by General Hawash Mohammed. The NDF started by organizing and training hundreds of volunteers in People’s Committees. These NDF-trained militias resembled the volunteer Basij militia in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG), which has given rise to the belief that they were created under the guidance of the leader of the Quds Force in the IRG, Qasem Soleimani.

2. Suqur al-Sahara

Established as an “elite force” by Mohammad Jaber – a businessman closely tied to the regime – the Suqur al-Sahara operates in desert areas and is known to have both participated in the al-Qaryatayn offensive and help recover Kessab village on the Syrian coast. The militia is made up of Alawite and Shiite operatives (as well as individuals from the al-Shaitat clan) and is largely dedicated to fighting ISIS. Comprised of trained operatives – including both current and retired army officers as well as young Syrian volunteers – Suqur al-Sahara is the foremost militia specializing in ambushes and carrying out challenging special operations. Moreover, the militia specializes in protecting oil and gas wells as well as the largest weapons stockpile in the country: theMahin Arms Depot.

3. Al-Bustan Militias

These militias are commanded by the director of the Bustan Charitable Association, which established a security branch that attracts Alawites from Syria’s coast. Functionally and administratively, these militias fall under the purview of the local army divisions in their areas of operation and coordinate their operations with the 18th Division. The most prominent of these militias is Kata’ib al-Jabalawi. Operating in both Homs and Ghouta, it is the most independent of the National Defense militias. Another of these militias is the Leopards of Homs, which was in operation between 2013 and 2015 founded by Shadi Jum’a – a confidant of officer Abu Ja’afar (also known as the Scorpion), who founded the Khyber Brigade, one of the NDF’s militias in Homs. The Leopards of Homs preside over the National Shield forces, which coordinate with the Shiite Zulfiqar militias in Damascus.

4. Coastal Shield Brigade Militia

A statement from the Syrian Republican Guard (SRG) in May 2015 announced the formation of the Coastal Shield Brigade. Comprised of recruits paid a salary of up to 40,000 Syrian Lira, this brigade protects the regime’s main stronghold and maintains its readiness to take in new volunteers to serve in the brigade’s ranks for either two years or an indefinite period of time. Rami Makhlouf and the SRG’s Major General Hassan Mustafa have been tasked with leading the militia with the goal of protecting Alawite villages in the coastal areas. The brigade is made up of defectors from mandatory military enlistment and army reserve service, as well as a number of criminals, who are spread out among the villages of Sanobar – outside of Jableh – and Asitamo.

5. Al-Jazeera and Euphrates Assembly

This is a militia that was formed in the Veterans Hall in Damascus. Sources indicate that this assembly comprises citizens of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Hasakah and is headed by Riyadh Arsan, who is from Deir ez-Zor but resides in Damascus.

6. Political Militias

These militias arose from political parties and have sought to mobilize their volunteers using partisan and political slogans. The most prominent of these militias are:

1. Ba’ath Brigades: This group was formed by Ba’ath Party members in Aleppo by Commander Hilal Hilal in summer 2012 after rebels managed to enter Eastern Aleppo. These brigades later sprang up in Latakia, Tartus, and even have operations in Damascus.

2. The Eagles of the Whirlwind: This group symbolizes the slogan of the Lebanese SSNP, which, in contrast to the national Ba’ath Party, subscribes to the “Greater Syria” ideology. Approximately 8,000 operatives from the Eagles of the Whirlwind, both Syrian and Lebanese alike, take part in operations in Syria. While their main focus is on Homs and Damascus, they maintain a larger presence in the Suwayda Province than the Syrian army.

3. The Arab National Guard: Formed in 2013 as a national militia made up of nearly 1,000 operatives, the Arab National Guard is stationed in Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Homs, and al-Quneitra and made up of nationals from several Arab countries, including Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen. The militia is staffed by several generals as well, including: Wadih Haddad (a Palestinian Christian), Haider al-Amaali (a Lebanese intellectual), Mohammad Borhami (a Tunisian politician), and Julius Jamal.

4. The Syrian Resistance: Formerly named the Popular Front for the Liberation of the Sanjak of Iskandarun, this militia is loyal to the regime and follows a Marxist-Leninist ideology. The militia is led by the Alawite Turk Mihraç Ural (formerly known as Ali Kayyali), who possesses Syrian citizenship and is known for carrying out the Bayda and Baniyas massacres.

7. Sectarian Militias (Christian and Druze)

The most notable include:

1. Jaysh al-Muwahhideen: This Druze militia declared its establishment at the start of 2013 and operates specifically in Suwayda, Daraa, Damascus, and other Druze areas. Initially founded to protect the Druze community, the militia now, under the leadership of Ismail Ibrahim al-Tamimi, more broadly supports the Bashar al-Assad regime.

2. Sootoro Forces: Comprised of Syriac Christians and a few Armenians, this is a local militia located in Qamishli in Hasakah Province.

3. The Christian Quwat al-Ghadab: Established in March 2013 in al-Suqaylabiyah Province in the Homs countryside to protect the city and its outskirts, this militia is closely affiliated with the SRG.

4. Valley Lions Brigade: This brigade is led by Beshr al-Yaziji and centrally located in the Krak Des Chevaliers and Wadi al-Nasara areas and their outskirts where they recruit local youth supportive of the regime, often enlisting them to spy on their peers in the opposition. This group purports to protect Christians, who populate over 33 villages in the area. Al-Yaziji maintains a number of security relations, the most important being with Major General Jamil Hassan, and also coordinates with both Brigadier General Haythem Dayoub from the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) and Colonel Mufeed Warda leader of the Mazhar Haider militia, which is directly linked to the state security services. Every fighter in the brigade is a volunteer that receives his or her salary from the state and is treated like a normal soldier or officer in the armed forces. The brigade uses the SSNP’s Marmarita bureau as a headquarters for coordinating its operations, a meeting place, and a center for both processing volunteer requests and enlisting new volunteers under the supervision of party members. In addition, a large number of the brigade’s members participate in combat operations, some of whom have died in battle, including: Fadi al-Shami and Tony Othman from al-Hawash, Firas Massouh from Marmarita, and Ghassoub Awad from al-Tal.

8. Palestinian Militias

These pro-regime militias were formed by Palestinian refugees both prior to and after the outbreak of the uprising. The Palestinian militias and factions that formed within refugee camps and have been active since the beginning of the uprising include:

1. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) – General Leadership: The role of the PFLP under the leadership of Ahmed Jibril stood out for its suppression of demonstrations in Yarmouk Camp at the beginning of the uprising. The PFLP also supported the Syrian army in its assault on Syrian protestors.

2. Fatah al-Intifada: Established in 1983, this militia is led by Colonel Said al-Muragha.

3. As-Sa’iqa: This group represents the Ba’athist wing of the armed Palestinian factions. It is tied to the Syrian Ba’ath Party and is a member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).

In addition to these factions, the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front and the Palestinian Democratic Union (including the Return and Liberation Brigades) are also active. Likewise, the regime has assembled Palestinian militias within Syria. Some of these include:

1. Galilee Forces: Comprising nearly 4,800 Palestinian operatives, the Galilee Forces are led by Fadi al-Mallah and trained by the Syrian army and Hezbollah. Having fought in the Battle of Qalamoun, members describe themselves as Syrians by affiliation, Palestinians by nationality, and resistance fighters by faith.

2. Liwa al-Quds: Established in October 2013 and led by Muhammad al-Sa’eed (also known as “The Engineer”), Liwa al-Quds is linked to the Air Force Intelligence Directorate (AFID) and is made up predominantly of Palestinians from Aleppo refugee camps, particularly Al-Nayrab Camp. Their last battle was for control over Handarat Camp in Aleppo.

3. Palestine Liberation Army (PLA): The PLA is led by Tareq al-Khadraa and differs from the Palestine Liberation Army that is subordinate to the PLO in that it has participated in a number of battles within Syria. The group’s most prominent battle took place in Adra, while its most recent was in northern Suwayda, during which it lost 13 fighters. The PLA has also fought battles in Darayya and Tell Souane and has participated in the sieges of Muadamiyat al-Sham and al-Zabadani. With regards to structure, the PLA comprises three brigades: “Hattin Forces” headquartered in the city of Qatana in Rif Dimashq, “Ajnadayn Force” headquartered in Mount Hermon, and “al-Qadissiyah Forces,” which are deployed near the city of Suwayda in southern Syria. Theoretically subordinate to the PLO leadership, in practice the PLA serves the Syrian government. Consequently, when a number of officers and personnel refused early on to enter into the Syrian conflict, they were executed in the field.

9. Druze Militias (in special cases they are absorbed within local authorities)

Suwayda Governorate’s neutrality has helped strengthen local militias, which have begun to take control of civilian life in the area. Checkpoints within the governorate are not all subordinate to the government, as some are administered by NDF militias, set up by People’s Committees, or run by an assortment of operatives from the Humat ad-Diyar militia, the SSNP, and the Ba’ath Brigades. According to local observers, these mixed checkpoints are divided up into gateways used to smuggle fuel into ISIS-controlled areas on the northeastern and south-southwestern borders of the governorate. These checkpoints are important sources of looting, collecting royalties from smuggling operations, and trading black market fuel, flour, and cigarette. Also active within the governorate is a militia with a religious veneer controlled by Nazih Jarbou that, along with other armed militias linked to the regime, is tasked with protecting the local community. Those belonging to this militia fall into three main groups: traders, fuel station owners, and those who need their interests protected.

Second: The Security Structure in Opposition-Held Areas

The decentralization of security bodies in areas held by opposition factions has developed as an alternative model to that of the strict authoritarian system that was in its place when the regime held control. Whereas a number of these security bodies have disappeared, others remain active and continue to provide security services. The first authorities that sought to take on security threats were the local councils, as their leaders were forced to deal early on with a number of issues that arose from the country’s new reality, including those related to security. Among these councils’ tasks was the maintenance of public order and the protection of public property.

The local councils’ role in maintaining security eventually faded for three main reasons:

1. Regime military incursions into areas that had fallen out of its control, which led to a collapse of the initial structure of local governance.

2. The increased militarization of the rebel movement and different factions’ assumption of security and military administration.

3. The emergence of experimental policing units formed by defectors from the security establishment.

Generally, local councils’ preference to leave security duties to competent authorities was driven by the following reasons:

1. The need to reorganize their priorities and refocus on services, particularly with the deterioration of the humanitarian situation and service provisions.

2. An unwillingness to cause friction with opposition military factions.

3. The lack of resources necessary to form security bureaus.

Following is a review of the most important security actors in the opposition controlled areas:^([2])

First: Rebel Police

The police forces have experienced a marked increase in defections in comparison to the military and security apparatuses, as an estimated 500 officers and thousands of other personnel have defected. Whereas a portion of defectors withdrew from security detail, a number of them have joined opposition security apparatuses in rebel-held areas. These rebel factions have worked in cooperation with civilians, particularly with the increase in popular discontent caused by the rise in theft, crime, and encroachment on public property. By the end of 2011 and start of 2012, the following policing experiments had begun to manifest throughout the country: The Judicial Police in Huraytan and Tell Rifaat, the Revolutionary Security Bureau, and the Revolutionary Outposts in most regions outside of regime control.

This policing experiment became more organized by mid-2012 as a number of these experimental units are still in operation. The most notable include:

1. Free Police in Aleppo and Idlib

2. Police Command in Eastern Ghouta

3. Police Command in Eastern Qalamun and Badia

4. Police Experiment in Homs (internal security)

While there are many experimental units that operate under various names (such as the Maintaining Order Forces, the Revolutionary Outposts, Public Security, Security Councils, and the Judicial Police, there remain local experimental units that never developed a clear institutional structure that went beyond their sectors or regions.

Second: Local Judiciary

In the absence of courts operated by the state judiciary, alternatives have emerged that differ with regards to legal authority, formation mechanisms, work methods, and the nature of jurisdiction and subordination. These include:

1. High Judicial Council in Aleppo

2. Islamic Commission Courts for the Administration of Liberated Areas

3. Judiciary Council in Eastern Ghouta

4. Courthouse in Horan

5. High Court in the Northern Homs Countryside

6. Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra) Front Courts (previously called Courthouses)

Third: Faction Security Bureaus

From their inception, opposition military factions have formed miniature Security Committees that are tasked with gathering and analyzing information and compiling a list of goals to be worked towards. These experimental committees continued to develop and were placed within the framework of Security Bureaus housed within the structure of the opposition factions themselves. These bureaus can be placed into four categories:

1. Armed Opposition Faction Security Bureaus, including: al-Jabha al-Shamiyya, Jaysh al-Mujahidin, Nur ad-Din Zengi, Rahman Corps, Southern Front Factions, Jaysh al-Nasr, and the Authenticity and Development Front.

2. National Islamic Faction Security Bureaus, including: Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Army of Islam, and Sham Legion.

3. Security Bureaus Arising from Military Alliances, including: Army of Conquest’s Executive Power, Free Idlib Army’s Security Bureau, Descendants of Hamza and Abu Amara Brigades’ Joint Security Bureau, and the Homs Operations Room.

4. Supranational Jihadist Faction Security Bureaus, such as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.

Evaluating Security Work in Areas Held by the Armed Opposition

Decentralization is the dominant feature of security administration in areas held by armed rebel factions. This is due to there being no central reference point for administering security. The decentralized security authorities lack institutional character for the following reasons:

1. Multiplicity of authorities: This leads to the creation of conflicting functions, clashing interests, and a lack of both consistency and integration.

2. Lack of manpower and specialized skills.

3. Lack of equipment and logistical support.

4. Lack of strategic planning.

The escalation of chaos in Syria’s rebel-held areas stems not only from a lack of institutionalization and limited capabilities, but also from an increase in threats from rebel opponents. Indeed, there are signs that the security situation in these areas is only growing worse, as indicated by the rise in assassinations and explosions, as well as the increase in criminal activities, such as theft, looting, robbery, and crimes against public decency. This bleak picture is further bolstered by the persistence of detainment, forced disappearances, torture, and the spread of armed gangs, drug dealers, smugglers, and the sale of stolen merchandise. The experimental security units outlined above assume a critical role in both curbing the retreat of viable security mechanisms and fighting terrorist groups, such as ISIS, particularly Aleppo, Rif Dimashq, and Qalamun. This is apparent in their relentless efforts to institutionalize and codify their operations through ongoing coordination with local councils, which are more representative and legitimate than other governing bodies.

Third: The Security Structure in “Administratively Autonomous” Areas

The occupations of security personnel in administratively autonomous areas closely resemble analogous position in regime-held areas before the uprising. Both sets of occupations subscribe to a model of community policing that is commensurate with the political ideology of the ruling party, condones the legitimacy of political detention and community militarization, and that links security directives to the central governing authority. However, Syria’s security establishment suffers from deep conflicts within its institutions as well as duplicity among authorities spread out between regime- and Democratic Union Party (PYD)-controlled areas. Perhaps the greatest danger threatening public security is the PYD’s ideological connection with military and security branches and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is both separatist and hostile to neighboring countries.

With the outbreak of the uprising, the PYD formed organized cells, some of which were structured as units called the “Revolutionary Youth Movement” led by Xebat Derik, a former commander in the PKK who was affiliated with a number of its institutions and was the first commander of the People’s Protection Units. With the development of the conflict, the PYD’s military and security organizations proliferated, some of which include.^([3])

1. People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units

These units rely on volunteer forces and lead major military operations in rural and urban areas that the PYD seeks to gain control of. The general structure of the YPG’s military hierarchy’s is comprised of a general command leadership, followed by a military council and field commanders drawn from different brigades, companies, and regions. In the past, the units’ military legitimacy rested on Article 15 of the “Charter of the Social Contract for Autonomous Democratic Rule” (ratified in the PYD’s first session on 01/06/2014), which states that the YPG comprise the only national institution responsible for defense and the preservation of both territorial sovereignty and peace in provincial lands. Moreover, the YPG serves the interests of the people by defending their objectives and national security. It is estimated that the number of fighters serving in the YPG ranges between 20,000 and 30,000.

2. Self-Defense Forces (HPX)

The Social Contract also ratified the formation of the Self-Defense and Protection Authority on 01/21/2014. Later, on 07/13/2014, the Legislative Council approved the Self-Defense Law, which states that each family is obliged to put forth one of its family members between the ages of 18 and 30 to perform “self-defense duty” lasting six months (nine months as of January 2016). The authority’s mission is to implement laws pertaining to the mandatory conscription of Kurds and is carried out by the PYD in areas under its control. Meanwhile, groups allied with the PYD, such as al-Sanadid Forces formed by the Shammar tribe, implement the policy in their own areas.

3. Core Defense Forces (HPC)

These forces draw their missions and duties from the needsof the autonomous Kurdish region by protecting areas and neighborhoods from attacks. For instance, they set up checkpoints on the main roads leading into neighborhoods, gather information about suspicious individuals in the area, support the People’s and Women’s Protection Units in combat operations, and coordinate with Asayish forces and other security services active in the area.

4. Asayish Internal Security Organization – Rojava

Subordinate to the General Authority, this group operates in al-Jazira and Kobani Provinces under the joint leadership of Commanders Jawan Ibrahim and Ayten Farhad. In the approximately four years since its inception, Asayish has developed the public security services in Rojava by leaps and bounds, now carrying out all security duties and possessing security apparatuses that carry out a multitude of functions. These include the: Traffic Directorate (tirafik), Anti-Terror Forces (HAT), Women’s Asayish, Checkpoints Administration, Public Security Directorate, and Organized Crime Directorate. By the end of 2016, the Public Security Directorate possessed 45 centers, 21 of which were located in al-Jazira, 5 in Kobani, 19 in Afrin, as well as over 195 permanent checkpoints throughout Rojava. There are 4,000 to 5,000 personnel and operatives serving in these different apparatuses.

There are other reserve forces as well, the most important including the Internationalist Freedom Brigade and an assortment of western advisors, which were formed because of the influx of foreign personnel to join the YPG after the battle against ISIS in Kobani. On 06/10/2015 the 25-person brigade officially announced its establishment in Ras al-Ayn (Sere Kaniye) and attracted foreign personnel of various nationalities, however most were Turkish leftists from the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party (MLKP) of Turkey, PKK, Villagers for Turkey’s Salvation (which is the military branch of the MLKP that dates back to 1973), and individuals from Eastern European leftist movements. At this time, a number of organizations began to form and were filled by newly arrived operatives to Rojava. At this time, the brigade divided into two parts: the Bob Crow Brigade (BCB), after the British union leader, and the Henri Krasucki Brigade, after the French communist leader. The Internationalist Freedom Brigade is led by a 30-year-old Kurdish woman named Deniz and is comprised of approximately 200 to 300 fighters.

The western presence in the Kurdish territories is not limited to volunteer fighters, but also includes a sizeable number of advisors who initially came to train YPG fighters, but went on to train the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) as well. These advisors include French, Americans, as well as a small number of Brits, nearly 500 of which direct the international coalition’s airstrikes against ISIS. The PYD is a strategic ally of the United States and, as their relations have developed, the latter has constructed five or six military bases in the outskirts of the oil city of Rmeilan, Mabrouka in western Qamishli, Tell Beydar in the northern outskirts of Hasakah, as well as a base headquarters near Ayn Issa and a base for American forces in the former French Lafarge cement factory.

Fourth: Security Fundamentals and Imperatives

The general unraveling of the security establishment in Syria clues us in to some of the fundamental forces that will act upon the shape of the future public security apparatuses in the country. These include:

1. Differences in political, ideological, and military terms of references.

2. International actors’ inconsistency in supporting the security services.

3. Disparities in political projects and ambitions pertaining to security.

4. Inability of any centralized government to regulate security services using integrated mechanisms because of the highly decentralized nature of the services.

5. Additional hidden security threats will surface the moment that a political transition occurs that does not take into account the nature of Syria’s security situation.

6. Inadequacy of the characterization that regions under regime political control have a coherent security structure.

7. Doubt in the regime’s ability to reign in the security establishment.

8. Increase in security threats throughout Syria.

9. Need for the security transformation process to be consistent with data on the public security situation.

10. Various and conflicting regional and international security breaches.

The Primary Arrangements Needed to Build an Integrated Security Sector

This refers to the group of measures and arrangements needed to transition from a less fluid security system to one that is more disciplined and in line with a central security strategy. The following recommendations speak to these needs:

1. Implement a group of constitutional principles that outline the new security doctrine’s adherence to the concept of administrative decentralization, link security to the nation and its citizenry, and put an end to the security services’ interference in politics.

2. Expel all foreign militias from Syria under the pretenses that they represent a real security threat.

3. Have international and regional actors agree to support security stability, organize with the central government, and offer up the expertise and support needed to develop security service manpower.

4. Dissolve all local militias and hand their weapons over to the state as a strategic necessity. Otherwise, have the security services regulate the security performance of these militias by enforcing codes of conduct and the security objectives expected of them. This can include a timetable for handing over arms and disbanding militias.

5. Adopt political measures needed for changing the security establishment while emphasizing the necessity of integration.

6. Have the state adopt governance programs for security work in Syria.

From here, the following points must be emphasized:

1. Dispatch the state security force in an organized fashion throughout regions out of the regime’s control to carry out all security duties, except those related to sovereignty.

2. Integrate all anti-terrorism personnel.

3. Link successful policing experiments institutionally to local governments, particularly in opposition-held areas and the Suwayda Governorate.

4. Put an end to all prevailing legal authorities and bind them to a unified model produced by the state in accordance with the new constitution.

5. Archive security operations in all regions according to a special archive system.

6. Emphasize the necessity that civil society supports, oversees, and protects the transition process.

7. Turn all military apparatuses into local operational security mechanisms that are administratively subordinate to the Ministry of Interior, but granted a high degree of independence.

8. Strengthen the concept of local empowerment by having locals supervise and implement the security plan, carry out security tasks, and maintain their area’s unique character.

9. Issue a general law that organizes the security agenda’s goals and limits. This will also define the security apparatuses’ relation to the central security establishment and oblige security personnel to adhere to the policies both contained within the resolution on Syria’s independence and that guard against fragmentation and division.

10. Ensure that financial, oversight, and administrative policies are consistent with the concepts of administrative decentralization.

The Figure Below Clarifies the First Recommendation Regarding Sectoral Security Functions:

1. Regional Functions

These are functions granted by the central authority of each geographic region that distribute security forces:

1. Border Guards: These local military units are concerned with border control and crossing.

2. Gendarmerie: These local military units deal with organized crime, smuggling, and gangs.

3. Community Police: These units specialize in community policing and are made up of trained civilian personnel that carry out functions derived from the unique local circumstances of each community.

4. Local Police: While administratively and structurally subordinate to the Ministry of Interior, these units are supervised by local units (Local Councils), which also appoint its staff according to set regulations.

5. Special Force: This unit is integrally related to the central security apparatus and functions as its executive military wing in anti-terrorism operations.

2. Central Security Functions

These relate to security breaches, anti-terrorism, gathering security information and providing it to competent authorities, preserving stability, ensuring law enforcement, and following up on security operations in all districts via legally-regulated relations with local units.

^([1]) Maen Tallaa, Power of security centers at the Regime, part of the unpublished research in Omran Center for Strategic Studies, January 2017.

⁽[2]⁾Ayman-Al Dassouky, a study entitled: local councils and local file security: Required Role for a problematic file, a study issued by Omran Center for Strategic Studies, 20 January 2017, Link: https://goo.gl/K9RzKM

^([3]) Bader Mulla Rashid, Security infrastructure in SDF/YPG controlled Areas, unpublished paper from Omran Center for Strategic Studies, January 2017

Abstract: The fall of Aleppo is not the end of the opposition in Syria, but perhaps marks the beginning of a Russian attempt to consolidate spheres of influence that are controlled by its regional allies and then push for a political track within its interpretation of political transition. What all actors understand is that it is no longer an option to return to the conditions prior to 2011. The Syrian opposition and its allies still have important cards to play including the empowerment of Local Administration Councils that gain legitimacy from the electorate and able to conduct stabilization programs that are essential during the transition. The opposition still control key strategic locations that should be empowered or a managed cease fire should be implemented to stop the misbalancing of powers.

The Syrian uprising has witnessed several phases each with different features and challenges. They ranged from the non-violent resistance phase, to the militarization, to the spread of cross-border ideological radical groups, to the internationalization of the conflict, the Russian intervention, and finally the consolidation of spheres of influence and control. Political negotiations can be characterized to have gone through phases beginning with the Geneva Communique in 2012, which calls for the formation of a transitional governing body with full executive powers, then the Geneva I, II, and II talks took place starting January 2014 until 2016 where negotiation rounds were stalled every time because of the insistence of the Assad regime to frame the talks for fighting terrorism and not the formation of a transitional governing body with full executive powers. Towards the end of 2015 and throughout 2016, there were a series of meetings called for by Russia and the United States in Vienna and other European capitals where a new international group was formed called the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) that called for a cessation of hostilities as a first step to re-start political negotiations with four main tracks: Humanitarian, Security, Refugee Resettlement, and civil society. A joint commission was formed by Russia and the US to oversee the cessation of hostilities process and the cease-fire agreements. During this process the United Nations Security Council approved the Russia-US agreement in the ISSG and issued UNSC Resolution 2254 calling for political negotiations with a strict timeline, where a cease fire takes place and ISIS and Jabhat Nusra will be targeted, political negotiations to reach a transitional body that ratifies a new constitution and holds elections to inaugurate a political transition. So far the UNSC 2254 has not been on schedule and that brings us to the last phase where Russia, Iran and Turkey met in

December 2016 and issued the Moscow Declaration. The agreement comes after the fall of Aleppo and puts out a more serious attempt to push a political transition process.

This expert brief argues that the fall of Aleppo was a result of a systematic policy by Russia to consolidate territories under the regime control, the Euphrates Shield zone, the Southern Front, the Kurdish controlled zones, then propose a political track according to its interpretation of “political transition”. In the face of the Russian policy, there was no other well-planned policy, underpinned by necessary means, implemented by other local, regional or international powers. The role of Iran is limited within the scope of the Russian policy, yet remains critical and strong on the ground, especially in its control of transportation routes to Lebanon. Additionally, the Russian diplomacy is far more aggressive and consistent with a clear determination for a political track without a regime change paradigm.

For Syrian opposition groups, the fall of Aleppo also puts forward a set of critical challenges and offers fewer options for diplomatic maneuvering while maintaining the balance of power through a freezing of hostilities or a nationwide cease-fire that freezes spheres of influence and control thus creating ground for negotiations. The Syrian opposition should adapt to the new conditions by generating new tools and mechanisms to deal with the new phase. Supporters of the Syrian opposition should also create conditions where Syrian “agency” and local actors are involved in the peace-making and stabilization process from the bottom-up.

The fall of Aleppo was a coordinated effort allegedly aiming at creating new conditions for a political track to be approached according to the Russian terms. This effort can be characterized by the following features:

1.     A consistent marginalization of societal demands and aspirations  while prioritizing a security based approach at any price, including forced evacuations of residents in Aleppo as well as Daraya, Zabadani and other regions. Local agency is often ignored and assumed to be a “proxy” to outside forces. This is why Russia has attempted to create a “Moscow 1 Syrian opposition”^([1]) and “Homaimim opposition”^([2]) to legitimize a “political track”; while realizing these groups’ inability to represent relevant Syrian actors in control of territories and borders.

2.     The priority of the regime and its allies was to re-gain control of Aleppo at any price while postponing efforts to fight ISIS in order to freeze zones of influence and presumably reach a political agreement that would then focus on fighting ISIS and Jabhat Fath al-Sham. This explains the minimal reaction by the regime and Russia to ISIS re-capturing Palmyra.

3.     The “Grozny” approach^([3]) during the latest military operation to regain Aleppo after over two years of failed attempts by the Assad regime ends a phase that was featured by the maintenance of the balance of power approach in the management of the conflict. While it was clear the opposition failed to present governance solutions to address security threats, the current scenario puts excessive political and military pressure on the opposition to offer concessions and agree to a Russian framed political track. This will lead to further radicalization and for increased recruitment by terrorist groups who manipulate a victimized narrative.

Additionally, this will lead to further chaos and fragmentation of opposition held areas making it incapable of implementing any transitional programs.

Opposition’s options

The opposition choices are very limited. They need to be empowered to exercise self-criticism and review its positions and strategies of addressing the political track, including not falling in haphazard mergers between armed groups without a clear agreement on roles and responsibilities as well as relationships with local societal actors. It is of strategic importance now more than ever to empower Local Administration Council that are the only representative bodies in Syria today, as they are structured from the bottom up^([4]). Field research shows a high positive correlation between citizen involvement and participation in local councils and the ousting of terrorist groups^([5]). Moreover, Local Councils are service providers with clear political roles in representing citizens’ views and limit the control and influence of armed groups. Stabilization programs should rely on local councils and civil society organization more than on armed groups.

The recapture of Aleppo by militias allied with Bashar Assad was not possible without the air support of the Russian Air Force. The forces allied with the regime are very fragmented and disorganized that they could not alone recapture the city of Aleppo^([6]). There were several attempts during the past 12 months to recapture the city but none was successful precisely because the Russians had different calculations and did not trust the ability of ground troops to take full control. The amount of military warfare waged on Aleppo was unprecedented and excessive, thus indicating a difficult front they were unable to previously capture without its full destruction and evacuation of all its citizens. The Assad regime remains very fragmented and does not have a monopoly to the “use of force” anymore thus suffering from diminished legitimacy. Information from the ground indicate that the Aleppo operation was fully managed by Russian and Iranian officers, while marginalizing Syrian-regime militias from decision making circles^([7]).

Assad in fact has regained a city of rubble devoid of its native population. This poses important questions regarding the upcoming negotiations processes and the place of the evacuated residents in it. Great uncertainty covers the refugees return before the start of any political process, hence affecting the legitimacy of the process. Indeed, Aleppo was strategically very important to the opposition, but it is not the end of the struggle. The opposition is still in control of most borders, major transportation routes, the Southern Front, Euphrates Shield zone, and Idlib. Numbers of armed forces in opposition areas are not to be taken lightly.

Territorial Control Map - Syria - 15 DEC 2016, No (1)

Another element to be considered is the new evolving Turkish role that focused on securing its borders and national security through the Euphrates Shield operations that are now close to Al-Bab. These forces draw the limits of Turkish military options to the objective of fighting ISIS and ending any possibility of PYD connecting the area between its Kobane and Afrin cantons, hence creating a territorially contiguous Kurdish enclave along Turkey’s borders. While Aleppo has historic, political and economic significance to Turkey, the Turkish role shifted to become a mediator to help create a ceasefire agreement and support on humanitarian efforts. Perhaps the best scenario is a controlled and consolidated territory in the north of Syria where no foreign fighters or other radical Islamist fighters can operate. This serves the objective of stabilizing the conflict and providing new options for a political settlement. This also requires an empowerment of local councils in these zones that provide local services and empowering civilians against militants which seeds for democratic values and institutions.

The Moscow Declaration and the Challenges Ahead

The Moscow Declaration established a new set of expectations by actors who are present on the ground as compared to previous attempts by a larger setting such as in Vienna and Geneva. The Declaration also increases the importance of creating a platform for Syrian opposition groups to avoid previous mistakes and consolidate their bodies and decision-making processes. The new phase requires different diplomatic and military tools and mechanisms; and the current Syrian opposition structures and negotiation strategies fall short of meeting the challenges of the current phase.

The moment also requires a plan to deal with Jabhat Fath al-Sham (previously known as Nusra Front). Syrian groups should end all communications and coordination with this group, and work to push them out of inhabited areas of Idlib. This could be done by highlighting the role of representative local councils as the civilians “horses for peace”, while pushing the militias to be regulated under the new civilian administration in order to deliver security. Holding elections as means to re-establish localized governance is a stepping-stone to stabilization programs. This also requires the limiting of armed groups interferences in public life and the provision of public services. The model presented by the Euphrates Shield in re-organizing Free Syrian Army groups, professionalizing them, and limiting their mandate to fighting terrorism can be adopted at least temporally. These programs should not wait a political track. It should serve the purpose of consolidating opposition areas, countering terrorism, and re-establishing order and rule of law. This will empower the opposition to be better equipped as a “state” not as “opposition” to enter negotiations as a reliable partner. Many claim this is unrealistic, but I claim that a political will and a paradigm shift by opposition groups, local councils, and armed groups can make this a reality.

For a sustainable peace plan to be maintained, all relevant actors on the ground should be involved and not treated as a “proxy” with countries “guaranteeing” positions on their behalf. Assuming that a resolution could be reached by forming a government with members from different “sides” of the conflict overlooks the true societal nature of the uprising and assumes that citizens can go back to the former rules of governance and the former forged social contract. A new social pact based on decentralization of governance and administration should be agreed upon by Syrians. This means all foreign fighters beginning with the 41 militias^([8]) supported by Iran including Hezbollah and their re-located foreign families should leave Syria. This requires a systematic process and a full plan that does not only rely on hard power and use of force. Syrian actors should be empowered to take responsibility of their local cities and towns and not allow them to operate freely. Additionally, the fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates cannot be won without a unified Syria, an end of the current system of governance, a new military-security philosophy, and the exit of Shia militias that reinforce the ISIS narrative and increase its recruitment world-wide. The presence of these terrorist militias is the main reason for the imbalance of power in Syria that lead among other reasons to the spread of ISIS.

It is not over yet. The opposition still hold several important cards that should be wisely maintained for the best of all parties. There still remains strongholds for the Syrian opposition that require careful negotiations to ensure that it is not lost and does not undergo a similar fate to that of Aleppo, by including them in a nation-wide ceasefire and implementing an agreement for a weapon-free zone with Russian guarantees. These areas including the Eastern Ghouta in Damascus Suburbs, and Idlib as a center for refugee resettlement and economic reconstruction. The liberation of Raqqa will also determine the trajectory of the conflict and the nascent control zones, refugee outflow policies and programs, and counter-terrorism programs. All the forgone are potential cooperation issues between the foreign stakeholders and the Syrian opposition in order to reverse the vicious cycle of conflict.

The conflict in Syria will not end with fall of Aleppo and the new round of political talks unless relevant actors “local agency” is involved and have a buy-in to the transition plan. Local actors include Local Councils and influential figures and civil society groups. The political process cannot proceed without applying the same rule to all sides of the conflict; the exit of all foreign fighters. The weakest element in the equation is the Asad regime that has been deeply fragmented with multiple militias and loyalties within its composition thus making it incapable of fulfilling any agreement they sign on to, without guarantees by Russia and Iran. A true transition plan should address the demands of the local citizens and establish a new beginning for the reconstruction of Syria.

Published In ALSharq Forum, 29/12/ 2016: https://goo.gl/ecsOjf

^([1]) The Russian Foreign Ministry hosted Moscow 1 and 2 meetings and invited opposition figures such as former government official Kadri Jamil, with the purpose of creating a legitimate body to take part in political negotiations but with demands limited to democratic changes in government to include more people rather than demands held by protestors. This group can be characterized as a group of individuals with little ties to relevant actors on the ground. This group alone cannot implement a peace truce but were brought to dilute the positions of the “opposition” and show a Russia-aligned group that could be a partner in the future.

^([2]) Homaimim Russian base in Syria has been a hub hosted by the Russian Defense Department to bring together Syrian “opposition” that live in regime held areas and create “shell” bodies that represent their limited demand for inclusion and diversity while being more aligned with the Russian narrative of the conflict. These members represent primarily interest groups that are linked with the regime and not any actor that has the power to implement or “sell” an agreement with relevant actors on the ground.

^([3]) In 1994-1995, Russian forces invaded the city of Grozny to stop the armed uprising and use lethal force and all destructive tools. Many refer to Grozny as it seemed a policy being implemented in the recapture of Aleppo where the eastern city was fully destroyed without any distinction of those being attacked and using all type of weaponry.

^([4]) In the survey conducted by the Local Administration Council’s Unit (LACU) and Omran for Strategic Studies in Summer of 2015, 405 local councils were interviewed and asked about their governance structures. This number reflects those councils we were able to reach, but represents 90% of local councils in operation. About one-third of these interviewed say councils’ members are voted by local constituency and two-thirds by local consensus of local actors and civil society. These Councils are tasked with provision of basic services to local residents, including local governance, permits for NGO’s operation, public infrastructures, local safety, rescue services (White Helmets was started by Local Councils), education, and health services.

^([5]) An example could be seen in the Southern Front where there are 76 local councils on the city and village level and the agreement between local councils and armed opposition groups allowed for Nosra to have little if any existence in areas governed by local councils. Another similar example is perhaps, Daraya (Damascus Suburb), and Maarat Noman (Idlib).

^([6]) Omran for Strategic Studies Information Unit researchers in Aleppo reported large number of fighters pouring into the military fronts from al-Nujaba Shiaa Militia, and that the ground control command was with Iranian militias with minimal official Syrian Army presence. Also see: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/12/middleeast/syria-analysis-tim-lister/

^([7]) Personal interview (Mohamad from Homs originally, does not wish to be named) with defected soldier who was stationed in Al-Qusair after its fall, then stationed in Deir Azzour before defecting, interview date August 25, 2016. He revealed that in military operation rooms where Hezbollah officers preceded, they did not allow Alawite Syrian officers to stay in the room during operational planning, and also forced them to taste food cooked before Hezbolla officers eat.

^([8]) Omran for Strategic Studies Information Unit map of foreign militias allied with the regime including numbers and training locations, unpublished, dated Nov 25, 2016.

Executive Summary

Systemic, functional, and structural change in the security services is a crucial issue that awaits objective solutions that take into account the rapidly shifting circumstances and variables throughout Syria. Because security reform is a complex process, it will be remedied – in light of Syria’s particular situation – by neither pre-packaged reform theories nor theses that ignore the nature and importance of national security while overlooking the necessity of cohesion and preventing collapse. Rather, theories are needed that entail a professional nation-wide effort consistent with local, regional, and international security requirements as well as the nation’s overarching goal: the construction of a coherent security sector.

This study finds that the Syrian state does not possess a “security sector” from a technical definition perspective sufficient enough to deserve reform. As it stands, security work in Syria falls into two categories: The first concerns forces of control and repression. Among these are the Air Force and Military Intelligence Directorates, which are divisions of the Syrian Army and the Armed Forces; the General Intelligence Directorate, which is a division of both the National Security Bureau and the ruling party (the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party), while political security forms a division of the Ministry of Interior. The second category is military-security networks (such as the Republican Guard, the 4^th Armored Division, and the Tiger Forces) that bear the responsibility of engineering the security process, determining its relationships and foundations, ensuring the regime’s security, and carrying out all measures and operations within society whenever there is sign of a security threat. Accordingly, two flaws and aberrations can be identified: The first relates to the security structure’s fragmentation, which in the past has helped curtail community activity, while also limiting its progress and development. The second issue relates to the function of these services, which is characterized by fluidity and boundlessness, with the exception of its permanent role consolidating and bolstering the regime’s stability. Indeed, any reform process of these services must target their function and structure at the same time.

Security is necessary and important in the context of any transition process, but this is particularly the case in a place like Syria, which operates as one of the sensitive regional and international counterbalances. To be sure, it is the most important of the state’s functions, whether in terms of maintaining social stability, protecting the country, or preserving its identity and culture from any encroachments. This need for security underscores that it is out of the question to dismantle security services, end their work, and not rebuild a national alternative with a cohesive structure and functions, as some are proposing. This is particularly true for the next phase of the new Syria, which has seen an increase in schemes that seek to cut across its national borders. Thus it seems that the requirement most consistent with the dualism of both rejecting the existing approach and confirming the necessity of security is the restructuring of the security services in the next phase so that they keep pace with those of developed countries that serve both the citizens and the nation.

This study shows that restructuring measures should be based on principles of change, smooth transition, and cohesion – for fear that a sudden change could have repercussions for the cohesion of the country. This will ensure that the security services resume working within the national framework and complement state institutions. Certainly, these measures are a reflection of a series of political arrangements that signal the real desire for change and political transition. Consequently, they are void of any competitive, acquisitive or authoritarian calculations. To this end, the study proposes three phases for carrying out the reform and development process: The first phase relates to the legal system, which will ensure the principles of integration, rebalance, change of function, and strengthened oversight. The second phase is linked to the development of the human, administrative, and technical structures. As for the third stage, it will comprise a set of measures that aim to complete the construction of a cohesive and functional security sector.

Introduction

Ever since the Ba’ath Party came to power in Syria in 1963, its Military Committee has relied entirely on the intelligence services as a tool for strengthening its governance and entrenching its base. During the reign of Salah Jadid towards the end of the 1960s, Abd al-Karim al-Jundi (President of the Security Services and the National Security Bureau at the time) followed the policy of kidnapping and torturing the party’s opposition. After coming to power in March 1971 following his coup November 1970, Hafez al-Assad used the security services to control security, politics, culture, the economy, and even religion, turning them into powerful appendages of his authority that pervaded the nation, society, and public life. His son, Bashar al-Assad, did not deviate from this path, as these apparatuses continue to follow all of the same policies that endeavored to limit citizens’ activities by using security restrictions and surveillance. These institutions, in addition to the military establishment, were the regime’s first and last lines of defense by virtue of their firm discipline and operational engineering, which enabled them to create the Syrian Army’s sectarian structure. This has enabled the army to control leadership and power centers populated by Alawites and those who owe their absolute loyalty to the regime. This type of engineering became clear following the disagreement between Hafez al-Assad and his brother Rifaat, who almost overthrew him in the 1980s. Following the event, Assad restructured the army and security services, adjusting security operations so as to consolidate his rule and undermine both political movements as well as the overt and covert ways for people to reject his regime.

In 2011, the Syrian uprising broke out having been caused largely by a hidden, yet growing, popular discontent directed towards the security services’ destructive and authoritarian practices that denied even of the most basic human rights. The security services followed these developments – seeing the gatherings of demonstrators as no more than “riff-raff, rebels, and terrorists” – and served as the main force to carry out policies of repression and systematic violence against the revolutionary movement. With the spread of the movement and the sharp spike in the level of the conflict, the international community has desperately attempted to put established rules in place to initiate a “political process” along a negotiated path. However, this process is still stalled as of the time that this study was prepared. All signs indicate that the necessary political solution, according to the international community, includes “preserving state apparatuses, chief among them the institutions of security and defense.”

As mentioned above, the study of Syria’s security situation, as well as discussion about the need for functional and organizational change in the security services, represent a compound problem that must be unpacked. Indeed, any political path that anticipates solutions to the Syrian crisis without taking into account the security component – along with its excesses and questions about its role in the Syria’s transition and future – will not work. Therefore, this study attempts to provide an accurate description of the security services’ current functions and program so as to touch upon the most significant levels of discernable deficiencies, as well as the conclusions that can be derived from this that will help create an objective picture of the security issue for the future.

Assumptions: The study proceeds from a number of assumptions, namely:

1. Any transition process that is not accompanied by a systemic change in its security services so as to render it capable of protecting the political transition will only represent superficial change that will not strengthen social and political stability and only consolidate the pillars of the ruling regime.
2. The reform process’s connection to engineering a Geneva-brokered political solution is a key structural link. Thus, the more that the solution is set up for a true process of change, the more it will clearly influence the reform process and transformation.
3. The reform process does not work without positive engagement from both international and regional actors, particularly after the Syrian “crisis” became the international issue par excellence. This requires vigorous national efforts, which include enlisting regional and international actors to support and fund the political and transition processes as well as their accompanying reform policies.
4. The study adopts the principle that the nation’s monopoly on central functions related to sovereignty (such as security, defense, and international affairs) is essential. That said, the study is applicable to scenarios where Syria’s territorial unity is preserved whether through the principle of administrative decentralization or some forms of federalism where the central state maintains the operation of central security services.
5. The reform process runs into severe opposition from both the security services themselves as well as the networks of the ruling regime on account of the “objectivity” of defending their interests, which the reform process will reconfigure on all levels, particularly with regards to organization and institutionalization. This reform will transfer the security services’ interests to authorities tasked with overseeing and monitoring both mechanisms of funding and all other planning processes.

Study Approach: This study follows both descriptive and behavioral approaches to show the philosophy and reality of the security services, their current organizational and functional nature, as well as the desired outcome. In identifying flaws and structural setbacks, the study relies on interviews with officers, individuals, and dissident security experts. Their insights constitute an essential documentation for finding out information about security operations and their methods, which the study considers to be a key foundation for the cohesion of the security services and their complete loyalty to the regime. Moreover, the study uses a comparative method in presenting its examination of the most important security reform experiences in Arab Spring countries in order to measure them against Syria, explore their most important lessons and conclusions, and carry them over as necessities that should be recognized and taken into consideration during Syria’s own security reform process.

Previous Studies: The most important studies published concerning security reform issues in Syria can be summarized as follows: The first is entitled Syria Transition Roadmap, published by Syrian Expert House and the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies in 2013, the ninth chapter of which details the restructuring of Syria’s security services by surveying the following:

1. The most important security services have revealed their role through policies of systematically repressing the Syrian uprising and have been documented carrying out its worst massacres.
2. The general goals, initiatives, and mechanisms of reform.
3. A proposal for a new Syrian security system based upon dissolving all security services with the exception of the police forces, which had a detailed explanation devoted to them that recommends restructuring the internal security forces.

That said, this study was completed in the context of the ongoing conflict in 2013, which has subsequently become more complex in light of certain types of crimes, the sheer volume of accumulating security issues, and the number of security threats from either religious or ethnic sources that have begun to overlap. Moreover, these complications are further compounded by the appearance of specific challenges, some of which relate to the continuing effects of security reform in Arab Spring countries, not to mention the multiple actors and stakeholders in areas of Syria that experience relatively stable forms of governance and local administration.

Similarly, the “Day After Project” designed to support democratic transition in Syria in 2013 published an important chapter on “Reforming the Security Sector,” which proposed dissolving the current security services and establishing new intelligence agencies (both for military and foreign affairs). The project proposes a 14-month timetable for initiating reforms based on the theory of jettisoning the security structure and establishing new security formations assigned local security functions, such as that of civilian police forces. The study subjected the security landscape to deconstruction and restructuring theories while at the same time pointed to the absence of a so-called “security sector.” The study further indicates that all security services are divisions of control belonging to different institutions, the most important being the army, Ministry of Interior, and the Ba’ath Party. Based on this view, the main actors in control of security and its institutions are networks engineered by the regime so as to ensure that these institutions serve to strengthen its authority. In this way, the regime relies on specific Alawite families that compete amongst themselves to show their loyalty and maximize their private interests. This structure makes it a strategic matter to break up these security networks while simultaneously creating a cohesive security sector based on the necessity of functional and structural change to the security services.

Yezid Sayigh’s Carnegie Center studies, which monitor and analyze the dynamics of security reform in Arab Spring nations, constitute an essential perspective that this study relies on to extract the most significant obstacles and issues that resist reform processes. His most important studies include: Crumbling States: Security Sector Reform in Libya and Yemen and Dilemmas of Reform: Policing in Arab Transitions. In these studies, Sayigh deconstructed the security reform processes in these countries, which he saw as faltering for several reasons. Perhaps the most prominent factors he identified were the legacies of dictatorial and factional regimes and the politicization of transition processes. Moreover, he recognized the significance of these governments’ focus on terrorism and their unwillingness to take on any other serious security agenda or consider the political economy dilemmas of this process, particularly with regards to costs.

I. The Security Reality During Assad’s Rule

The Emergency Law enacted in 1962 and the declaration of a State of Emergency on 8 March 1963, along with subsequent constitutional amendments introduced under Hafez al-Assad in 1973 allowed the security services to exceed the powers granted to them by the laws and decrees under which they were created. They thus became a means to impose repression, commit acts of torture, restrict freedoms, and suppress public opinion, and moreover inflict heavy setbacks on Syrian society. As a concept, “security” means constant research and investigation for the sake of stability and civil cohesion. Under Hafez al-Assad, however, this principle was completely ignored and replaced by a conception of the security services as the private security of the ruling authority, whereby security agencies and other military and civilian sectors were either subjected to its control or created from scratch in order to control domestic interactions on all levels and forcibly exclude them from effective participation in the public sphere.

Philosophy of Security Work:

A survey of security work and conduct during the rule of Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad reveals that the philosophy of security activity involved a binary of: loyalty to the regime and private interests, which constituted the real guarantee that they would remain the principal actor in all domestic interactions and an absolute bulwark of the ruling regime.

The main features of this philosophy are as follows:

1.Absolute Powers and the Link Between Community Activity and Security Trends:

The security services have received complete independence and wide-ranging powers in all aspects of political, economic, service, and social life as well as have adopted several methods of intervention. Perhaps the most important method is devotion to the principle of so-called “Approvals and Security Studies.” The essence of this principle is that it gives the security services the right to “object” to all community practices and demands, which results in intrusion into the simplest aspects of everyday life, from obtaining a street vendor’s license, to registering real-estate and inheritance information, to holding membership to parliament, to promoting army officers, forming cabinets, or even appointing judges. Just getting a public sector job, no matter how small or large, is contingent upon security research results that are determined to be positive towards the regime’s political position.

2.Competing for Loyalty and Inter-Agency Hostility

In asserting his control over the security services, Hafez al-Assad relied on the strategy of generating hostility and creating an atmosphere of competitiveness between the different security agencies and their senior officials. Performance indicators were linked to standards of absolute loyalty and obedience. In order to create a special interest sphere for security officials, they were given access to all levers of the state, which provided them with obscene wealth. At the same time, an entire file was prepared for each and every “corrupt individual and transgressor,” which facilitated the process of seamlessly terminating them if their ambitions grew too large. As for the era of Bashar al-Assad, he went about sowing conflict and mutual competition within his areas of influence and control. Control over border passages was distributed so that each one was subordinate to a specific security agency that rules and controls it and its revenue. Accordingly, boarder passages with Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are each respectively subordinate to the General Intelligence Directorate, Air Force Intelligence Directorate, Military Security, and Political Security.

3.Compounded Fear of the Security Forces:

Over time, the condition of fearing security, embodied by the culture of fear propagated by the security services themselves, grew by leaps and bounds, as did weariness about surveillance within institutions. This transpired as a contradictory sectarian structure was enshrined within the decision-making centers of each government branch. Moreover, this pervasive fear spread as the culture of “reporting” deepened in society and within the security establishment itself – as making mistakes, whatever they may be, was constantly feared. Within the community, restrictions proliferated that hampered people’s activities, keeping them bound and fearful of taking any collective or individual action. As for internal fear, it comes from signs of negligent performance of either security tasks or any action in which loyalty and belonging to the ideology and doctrine of the “nation’s leader” is minimized.

4.Duties Related to the Ruling Regime’s Security

Totalitarian and autocratic states impose major duties and burdens on the security services, which bring them into alliance with the ruling regime. These duties connect their fates with the survival of the regime, putting the regime’s security ahead of its internal security issues on different social, political, safety, and economic levels. This has increased the number of abuses committed by security services, inflated their roles in carrying out repression, and deepened their connection to systematic legal and human rights violations. Over the past few decades, a certain security doctrine has been propagated that justifies the transformation of the state’s security functions into a goal in and of itself that is separate from the rest of the roles and functions of the state. The allocations for essential state functions, such as education and health services, have in many cases been reduced so as to provide greater resources for security, which maintains its survival at the helm. In this way, it ignores the foundations for building security services, which should be preserving the security, peace, and the stability of the nation and its citizens.

5.Restricting Political Activity

Throughout Assad’s rule, the security strategy has aimed to promulgate the philosophy of separating society from politics, both in word and deed, rendering it the exclusive domain of the ruling family and its supporters while denying and marginalizing the middle class and subjecting its intellectuals and innovators to strict surveillance. This approach has effectively linked the middle class to several organizational structures that fall under the umbrella of the Ba’ath Party, thus making it interact with, and become influenced by, only a small partisan circle. Those who fall outside of this circle, are numerous and unsuccessful because of their lack of access to state tools and mechanisms, not to mention their direct targeting at the behest of security institutions.

The security services strove to reduce politics to the figure of Hafez al-Assad in theory, practice, and approach, while also working on disseminating “his values and achievements” among all society’s classes and institutions. This focus bordered on deification, which resulted in an absence of true political representation, instead replacing it with another deceptive and rigid politics based on authoritarian and self-interested balancing acts and calculations.

6.Exhausting and Overwhelming Bureaucratic Structures

The regime has relied on a policy of controlling the capital city and the rest of Syria’s provinces according to the principle of overwhelming their administrative, service, and social structures with a massive number of branches, each with different overlapping and contradictory authorities and multiple functions. This has generally left citizens to come up with their own living solutions within the margins opened up by “red lines,” “national security,” and “national unity” cultures that have left them susceptible to exhaustion if they stray outside of them. It may reach the point that citizens continue to turn to the security services over a long period of time without ever getting their problems attended to, simply because mutual coordination between these services has been eliminated without any legislative or legal action. Furthermore, most branches dispatch several agents to follow and monitor the work of other official security services. This lays the foundation for contradictory policies, favoritism, and deepens the culture of reporting, which aims to either let a certain agent carry out other agents’ work or to coordinate with them to ignore “offenses committed” for their own collective benefit.

As a general outcome, the philosophy of security work in Syria is based on enshrining a group of security rules, customs, and standards that completely bind Syrian society, render it immobile, and push it to deduce the limits of what is permissible and forbidden when it is not exposed to regime security. This process has always involved intervention from security and defense institutions to manage political and government affairs until they literally become the source for laws that govern society. This hampers the developmental or reformative action that restructures the authoritative system of action and links its functions to serving citizens and their advancement. The figure on the left clarifies the levels of security work and shows the role each plays within this philosophy.

Security and Intelligence Services: Tasks and Structure

The security and intelligence services are comprised of four general directorates that are supervised by the National Security Bureau (NSB). The main headquarters for all of the services is located in the capital and includes four central branches. Falling under this directorate are branches located in every province that contain offices with specializations corresponding to those of the central branches. In other words, the branch is a microcosm of the general administration. The figure below clarifies the security services’ general structure.

1. National Security Bureau (NSB)

This is the office that took the place of its former counterpart by virtue of Presidential Decree No. 36 in 2012 shortly after the bombing of “the Crisis Cell operation room in the National Security building” in 2012 which was responsible for the security agency’s plan to counter the uprising and protest movement. The NSB was assigned the task of “drafting security policies in Syria” and presided over by the former director of the Directorate of Intelligence Major General Ali Mamlouk.

The Regional Command of the NSB was previously presided over by Mohammed Saeed Bakheitan, who is considered one of the members of the old guard that kept their leadership seats in the Ba’ath Party’s 10^th Regional Congress alongside Farouk al-Sharaa, General Hasan Turkumani, and Major General Hisham Ikhtiyar. The former NSB had been subordinate to the regional command of the Ba’ath Party, convened weekly, and decided on a number of important issues pertaining to the country’s security. After the 2012 Presidential Decree, the NSB was made directly subordinate to the President’s Office and, under Mamlouk’s leadership, it shifted from being responsible for coordinating the security services and submitting general periodic reports and summaries to being more focused on leadership and guidance.

2. General Intelligence Directorate (GIC)

The General Intelligence Directorate (GIC) was previously named “State Security” and established by Decree no. 14 in 1969 after Hafez al-Assad assumed power. The directorate is directly subordinate to the president under the name “Unit 1114” without going through any state body or ministry except when coordinating with the NSB. The GIC encompasses 12 central branches in addition to active sub-branches in each province. Furthermore, the directorate includes the Higher Institute for Security Sciences, which was established in 2007 so that state representatives and diplomatic missions undergo intensive security trainings. The GIC is notable by its large number of civilian contractors and its officers, who are assigned by the Ministries of Defense and Interior.

According to the law that established the GIC, it is a civilian department even though all active military personnel are commissioned by the Ministries of Defense and Interior and hence report to them financially and organizationally. As for other civilian members of GIC, they are subject to the State’s uniform workers code. Accordingly, military officers overwhelmingly dominate positions of power, leadership, and agenda-setting posts, while civilians carry out administrative work in branches under the authority of military personnel. The percentage of Alawites among managers and heads of departments is approximately 70%, whereas the remainder belong to other sects. Recruits in the Syrian Army are selected to go to the directorate and tasked with guarding and protecting administrative workers.

Structure of the General Intelligence Directorate

1. Director of the GIC: Appointed by Presidential Decree, the current director is Major General Mohammed Dib Zaitoun, who was appointed by Presidential Decree in 2012 following the tenure of Major General Ali Mamlouk, who was then appointed president of the NSB.
2. Deputies to the GIC Director: There are multiple deputies working under the GIC Director, each of which is appointed by decree and his or her powers, specializations, and rights, and duties are determined by a resolution issued by the director. Current deputies include Major Generals Mohammed Khalouf and Zuhair al-Hamad.
3. Information Branch 255: This branch is tasked with obtaining all political, economic, and social information and to monitor the religious, partisan, and media sectors. Information is collected to this branch from the other central branches, provincial branches, and other sources. This information is then archived and utilized by GIC. Thereafter, resolutions are issued such as travel bans and ordering the “arrest” of citizens whom the directorate’s branches have incriminated.
4. Investigative Branch 285: This is a central branch that specializes in investigating transmitted information from branches, sources, and agents. Most detainees arrested by provincial branches are referred to Branch 285 after they have been questioned by investigation departments. It has become customary that the president of this branch, as well as most of the investigators in it, are Alawite.
5. Counter-Terrorism Branch 295: Otherwise known as the Najha Branch, this branch specializes in dispatching consignments of volunteers to work on behalf of the GIC. Additionally, the branch trains individuals within the GIC (namely military personnel) in military and security sciences, works on increasing their levels of fitness and physical capabilities, and trains them to carry out their main missions of raiding, kidnapping, assassinating, and counterterrorism. This branch was among the first that the GIC relied upon to suppress the protest movement in Daraa and Baniyas.
6. Counter-Espionage Branch 300: This branch specializes in keeping tabs on foreigners and those suspected of working with foreign actors. This branch also surveils government and private institutions that work abroad and observes the work and relationships of political parties and politicians. This branch has a working relationship with the Technical Branch as well as the telecom company SyriaTel, which is owned by Rami Makhlouf.
7. External Branch 279: This branch is tasked with managing the external intelligence stations in embassies and consulates around the world. It investigates incoming information that pertains to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and any other ministries that carry out foreign missions and deployments. Moreover, the branch closely monitors and surveils Syrian expatriate citizens and all of their political and social activities.
8. Technical Branch 280: This branch is authorized to conduct eavesdropping, communications jamming, and technical surveillance missions. It also helps other branches with all of their technical support needs and carries out engineering, electrical, and mechanical works in the GIC and its branches. Its most important departments include wired and wireless communication equipment, computers, intelligence gathering, mail monitoring, encryption, internet, the Ghadir Project, and the satellite jamming project.
9. Internal Branch 251: This is the name of the GIC branch in the capital Damascus, and is responsible for counter-intelligence work within Syria, particularly in Damascus and its suburb. The branch has an essential role in appointing government officials, presidents of unions and chambers of commerce, general managers of public corporations, university staff and heads, party trustees, as well as the appointment of key government positions in all divisions and ministries. Furthermore, it has become customary for the president of this branch to be exclusively Alawite. Former presidents include Bahjat Sulaiman, Mohammed Nasif, and Tawfik Younis and, currently, Ahmed Dib serves as the branch’s president. The branch houses a department known as Department 40, which is, based on its powers and engagements, considered to be a total directorate, the management of which has long been run by Hafez Mahklouf.
10. Training (or Ghouta 290) Branch: It is authorized to run all training programs that aim to improve the GIC’s staff knowledge and skills relating to either theoretical security sciences, management, technology, or technical training.
11. Economic Branch 260: This branch monitors and investigates all economic and administrative activities by citizens, private companies, institutions, commissions, or publicly-owned corporations.
12. Branch 111: Reports to the GIC director’s office, and organizes all affairs directly supervised by the director and is involved in all other branches’ matters. Most of those employed in this branch are Alawite.
13. GIC Provincial Branches: These branches are located in the different provinces and given a three-digit number, each of which contains departments analogous to those of the central branches in Damascus. These branches have the same competencies as their central counterparts and perform the same work, however within the confines of their province. Every branch operates and oversees divisions, departments and sub-units scattered throughout their province, as each town or village has a security officer who is responsible for it, conducts security studies, and is tasked with calling on other security branches. In this way, the GIC oversees every region and comprises thousands of agents, informants, and delegates in every city, village, as well as public and private institutions.

3. Military Intelligence Directorate (MID)

The Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense administratively, financially, and in terms of obtaining armaments. However, the Minister does not have any authority over it. Conversely, the MID is involved with appointing the Minister of Defense, his deputies, chiefs of staff, and dictates the transfer of army officers and personnel. Meanwhile, the MID’s chief is appointed by the president. Upon its establishment, the MID was made responsible for military units, borders, as well as the security of officers, personnel, and military installations. The Chief of the MID is currently Mohammad Mahla, who was appointed in 2015 following his predecessor Rafiq Shahadah’s tenure.

The MID, which is considered to be the Syrian Army and Armed Forces’ security division in society, goes by the motto “safeguarding the principles and values of the establishment,” which it uses as a pretext to instill an ethos that “Assad’s army is sacred.” At the same time, this approach is used to justify its role as an overseer and partner of other security services in their efforts to police local activity via determinants that bolster the regime’s authority. The directorate’s officers – the majority of which herald from a variety of different military units – are tasked with monitoring the behaviors of military personnel based on standards of loyalty and adherence to the regime’s command. The MID also constantly investigates any potential reform initiatives that may be carried out by commissioned or non-commissioned officer ranks, volunteers, and conscripts.

Structure of the Military Intelligence Directorate

First: Central Branches operating in Damascus:

1. Branch 291: This is the administrative affairs branch, also known as the Personnel or Headquarters Branch. Several functions are assigned to the branch relating to the MID’s activities, central archive, human resources files and reports, as well as monitoring the performance of MID itself to prevent any breaches from within. The self-assessment of MID by this branch plays a significant yet supplementary role in the promotion, demotion, expulsion, or transfer of employees within MID.
2. Branch 293: This branch is responsible for Officers’ affairs and security. From a practical perspective, it functions and acts as a security network/bureau on its own and not necessarily as a branch of MID. The branch handles evaluation and surveillance issues and monitors all army officers. Moreover, the branch plays an essential role in promoting, removing, and transferring army officers and appointing them to their departments. The branch chief has the ability to directly contact the President of the republic and submit reports directly to him.
3. Branch 294 (Security Forces Branch): Tasked with surveilling the operation and movement of armed divisions as well as all armed forces (with the exception of the Air Force and Air Defense). This branch handles records of military bases and units, as well as artillery divisions and their levels of combat readiness and loyalty. Security officers in charge of military units are more loyal to this branch than their military units’s leadership. It is should be mentioned that all moves by army units must be approved, and coordinated by this branch. Finally, it assumes a supervisory power over military police and its divisions that are attached to military units and divisions.
4. Branch 235 (Palestine Branch): This is one of the oldest and most important branches in the MID. Branch 235 is tasked with (both domestic and foreign) responsibilities equal in size to those of an entire intelligence directorate. While the branch is supposed to concentrate on countering threats by Israel and specializing in matters related to Palestinian organizations both domestically and abroad, its responsibilities have expanded significantly to include pursuing and infiltrating Islamic organizations, as well as trying to steer and control them through its own counter-terrorism department. This branch is also specialized in surveilling Palestinian refugees located in Syria. In fact, a sub-unit of the branch called the Commando Officers Unit specializes specifically in Palestinian Liberation Army affairs as well as those of armed Palestinian movements that are officially stationed in Syria (these include the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) founded by Ahmed Jibril).
5. Information Branch: This branch focuses on data gathering and evaluation of all affairs relating to MID’s work and prepares different studies and reports related to this effort. The branch comprises many different departments, including a department for religions and political parties. It surveils local and international audio, visual, written, and internet media activity, and also works directly and indirectly with media outlets on matters of interest to the MID.
6. Branch 211: This is named the “Signals Branch”, and is responsible for monitoring the army and security services’ wireless signals and encrypting them. The branch is also tasked with conducting technical surveys and wiretapping.
7. The Computer Branch: This branch specializes in computer- and internet-related services. Its tasks include surveilling the internet, monitoring all virtual activity, intervening in hacker activity, and blocking or unblocking websites.
8. Branch 225 (Communications Branch): This branch surveils all wired and wireless communication lines in the army and armed forces. It also supervises and follows up on the implementation of all communications projects in the country.
9. Branch 248 (Military Investigations Branch): This branch is like the MID’s primary investigations commission for military security and considered to be the second worst branch in the MID – after the Palestine Branch – with regards to violations.
10. Branch 215: This branch is also known as the raids and forced entry commandos. It differs from all other branches in that it comprises about 4,000 personnel trained in all varieties of skills utilized by Special Forces, including raiding, assassinating, kidnapping, and arresting wanted individuals.
11. Patrols Branch: This branch conducts all central and peripheral leadership orders and directives regarding field security duties.
12. Quneitra Intelligence Branch: Also known as Sa’sa’ Branc: It specializes in intelligence affairs in the occupied Golan Heights and PFLP forces. The branch also monitors the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF) active in this area.

Second: Provincial Branches: These branches are spread throughout each province and, depending on the need, may have sub-departments, divisions and units in each administrative district of the province. Each branch is assigned a number.

A noteworthy and important observation in the MID is that approximately 80% of commissioned officers, non-commissioned officers, and personnel are Alawites, and the majority of them are commissioned by army units to MID with the exception of some conscripts who are assigned duties such as guards, gatekeepers, and raiding targeted sites. The MID is also in charge of the military intelligence school, which trains MID volunteers and personnel.

4. Air Force Intelligence Directorate (AFID)

The Air Force Intelligence Directorate (AFID) was established during the early days when Hafez al-Assad took office and remains the regime’s most loyal state body. It is famous for possessing the strongest manpower and best technical skills of all of the security directorates. AFID contains the lowest percentage of non-Alawite officers compared to other directorates. While AFID is theoretically subordinate to the Ministry of Defense in terms of its administration, finances, and armaments acquisition, the Minister of Defense does not have any authority over it. On the contrary, AFID, along with the MID, oversees the Minister’s work and has an important role in his appointment. Major General Mohammed al-Khuli has remained AFID’s head for a long period of time after Hafez al-Assad relied on him during security operations against his opponents after seizing power. This directorate’s main responsibility is to protect the Syrian Air Force, the president’s airplane, and to provide security when he is outside of the country.

Structure of the Air Force Intelligence Directorate

AFID contains six subordinate branches in Damascus, its own investigations branch, and six branches in the provinces :

1. Administrative Branch: This branch is tasked with safeguarding all of AFID employee records. It also surveils its staff to prevent any security breach within it. It also has a role in the promotion, removal or transfer of employees within the directorate.
2. Information Branch: Specializing in the directorate’s general information gathering and conducting various studies. This branch houses many departments, including the departments of religion and political parties. It surveils local and international audio, video, written, and internet media activity, and works directly and indirectly with media outlets concerning matters of interest to AFID.
3. Investigation Branch: This operates in the capacity of the AFID’s primary investigation commission, and is infamous for being the worst branch in committing torture and other atrocious violations.
4. Airport Branch: Located at the Mezzeh Airport, and is responsible for Presidential Airport security as well as the President’s airplane. Inside sources indicate that this branch is also responsible for intelligence missions related to the personal security of the president during his travels abroad.
5. Operations Branch: Responsible for AFID’s domestic and international operations, including those related to the Air Force weaponry that require extensive foreign intelligence efforts. This branch coordinates with the Airport Branch when performing foreign intelligence operations related to the president’s security while he is in transit. Its agents are usually stationed at Syrian Airlines offices abroad.
6. Special Operations Branch: This branch has a significant, widespread presence in all of Syria’s provinces in the form of departments. It performs combat operations with the help of requested units from the Air Defense, Air Force, military airbases, and even civilian airports, including the deployment of necessary weapons, munitions, and aircrafts.
7. Provincial Branches: There are six branches in the different provinces covering all of Syria. They include:
8. Regional Branch: Covers Damascus and its suburbs with headquarters in Damascus.
9. Southern Region Branch: Covers Daraa, al-Quneitra, and al-Suwayda with headquarters in Damascus.
10. Central Region Branch: Covers Homs and Hama with headquarters in Homs.
11. Northern Region Branch: Covers Aleppo and Idlib with headquarters in Aleppo city.
12. Eastern Region Branch: Covers Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Hassakeh with headquarters in Deir ez-Zor.
13. Coastal Region Branch: Covers Latakia and Tartus with headquarters in Latakia.

These branches each have corresponding departments spreading throughout provinces that do not house a main headquarters. They also have other departments and sub-units in other regions and administrative districts and villages according to the need.

5. Political Security Directorate (PSD)

While the Political Security Directorate (PSD) financially and administratively falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Interior, but it does not report to it in terms of its professional performance. Furthermore, PSD has a supervisory authority over the Minister of Interior, his officers and staff including all police units. In other words, it is practically independent in that it can communicate directly with the President. Indeed, this directorate is the most pervasive in society, interacts the most with civilians, is most widespread among citizens, and spans the entire country and all segments of society. Moreover, the directorate carries out copious exchanges with civilians, demanding work and construction permits approved by PSD, which has a vast reservoir of the regime’s information about citizens. This drives PSD officers and personnel to exploit their influence, accept bribes, and impose “tribute” on citizens on a massive scale. PSD officers and personnel are chosen by the Ministry of Interior, with the exception of the PSD head, who is appointed by a Presidential Decree. Major Generals Adnan Badr Hassan, Ghazi Kanaan, and Mohammed Dib Zaitoun are among the most prominent of PSD’s former chiefs. Currently, the Druze Major General Nazih Hassoun, who was appointed following the tenure of his predecessor Rustum Ghazali, serves as PSD president.

It has become customary for the PSD president to come from the security or military services’ leadership. Unlike its counterparts, the directorate is more of an administrative apparatus than a fieldwork civilian one in that it, to a large extent, serves an administrative intelligence role. Its responsibilities are entirely domestic in that it does not carry out any activities abroad like other directorates (with the exception of the Arab and Foreign Affairs Branch, which monitors Arabs and foreigners within the country). The directorate’s provincial branches are named after the provinces themselves (for example, the Political Security Branch of the Damascus Suburbs) instead of being assigned a three-digit number.

Structure of the Political Security Directorate

The directorate is made up of a number of branches in Damascus as well as the following branches located in the rest of the provinces:

1. Police Security Branch: This branch handles all records pertaining to the directorate’s workers and conducts surveillance on them to prevent any internal breaches. It also plays a role in promoting, removing, and transferring PSD personnel. Of note, this branch also has files on all personnel of all ranks and functions working in the Ministry of Interior.
2. Information Branch: This branch serves as a collection hub for all information and studies from other central and provincial branches. It consists of a number of different departments, including an espionage department and a department for students that concentrates on attendees and managements of universities, institutes, schools, and kindergartens. It surveils local and international audio, visual, written, and internet media activity. It also works directly and indirectly with media outlets concerning matters of interest to the PSD.
3. Investigations Branch: This branch functions much like the PSD’s primary investigations authority. Central branches and those from other provinces hand detainees over to it who have committed crimes deemed serious by the regime.
4. Patrols and Surveillance Branch: Employing a large number of personnel, this branch is tasked with carrying out patrols in Damascus and its suburbs. The branch conducts raids, makes arrests, and supports provincial branches when assigned.
5. Parties and Entities Branch: This branch monitors the activities of political parties deemed “friendly,” which include the Ba’ath Party and even some opposition and hostile parties. Additionally, the branch monitors all political opposition activity and so-called terrorist groups, surveils mosques, churches, and all religious activities and functions, and grants permits to imams, preachers, mosque servants, and religious teachers. Moreover, it issues licenses to charitable and civic organizations and surveils both pro- and anti-regime meetings, conferences, and celebrations.
6. Economic Security Branch: All information relating to public, private, and joint public-private economic ventures and activities collected by provincial branches is funneled to this branch, which also monitors all government departments. Additionally, it submits periodic presentations to the President of the Republic on economic activities and indicators. It archives information on employees who have been arrested for work-related reasons, and surveils employees’ religious lives.
7. Correspondence Records Branch: This branch receives correspondence from all branches, departments, and other bodies and redirects them to intended recipients after PSD president’s review.
8. Arab and Foreign Affairs Branch: All information related to foreigners and Arabs in Syria is handled by this branch. It receives and processes reports from outside of the country. It specializes in granting approvals for residence permits of foreigners as well as approving and monitoring their economic and social activity in Syria.
9. Information Systems Branch: It houses the physical and digital personal records on all Syrian citizens, Arabs, and foreigners gathered by the central and provincial branches.
10. Administrative Affairs Branch: Coordinating with the Ministry of Interior, this branch is tasked with fulfilling the central and provincial branches’ needs of weapons, munitions, equipment, furniture, facilities, and purchases.
11. Signals Branch: This branch is tasked with the fulfillment of requests for the procurement of different types of wired and wireless communication devices for all branches, while also surveilling communications within the PSD and Ministry of Interior.
12. Vehicles Branch: This branch is tasked with fulfilling the requests of all other branches for vehicles and its attachments.
13. Provincial Branches: The PSD has a branch in each of the 13 provinces, except for al-Quneitra Province, which is covered by the Damascus Suburbs Branch that has a department called the “Quneitra Department.” Each of these branches also has sub-departments and divisions located throughout Syria in every administrative district. This enables it to provide security for the entire country and monitor all citizens. The branch’s departments and divisions recruit citizen informants from the general population who operate in their respective areas of residence. Informants submit their reports to their respective department or division that in turn archives and organizes it then forwards to the specialized branch in the province.

It is worth mentioning that most of those who belong to the PSD are graduates of police academies and colleges and interact directly with citizens to conduct special reports and studies. The percentage of Alawites in the PSD and its branches is less than their percentage in other directorates according to estimates by PSD defectors.

The Regime’s Military-Security Networks

The ruling regime has assigned the task of security strategies oversight to certain military units that profess absolute loyalty to the regime primarily as a result of special arrangements followed in the recruitment of its human resources by relying mostly on Alawites, as well as the nature of tasks assigned to them including inter-agency and intra-agency oversight. The regime also grants these units unrestricted powers to firmly put in check aspects relating to criminal and societal security that are not within the jurisdiction of the traditional official police force. One can assess the regime’s security policy by closely analyzing these networks that were mastered and attached directly to the regime. The most important units include:

First: Republican Guard

The Syrian Republican Guard Forces (RG) are considered the most prominent of the Syrian Army’s elite divisions as well as its most heavily armed. Their main task is to protect the capital from any internal or external threats. Thus, they are the only military unit allowed to enter Damascus.

Confirmed information on the RG is scarce, however some reports indicate that they are distinguished by their strong armaments. Furthermore, they are composed of nearly 10,000 soldiers spread throughout several different brigades and its officers are given a portion of Syrian oil revenues to maintain their loyalty. The establishment of the RG dates back to the end of the 1970s after armed clashes broke out in Hama and Aleppo between Hafez al-Assad’s regime and his Muslim Brotherhood opponents.

The RG maintain a high degree of Bashar al-Assad’s confidence, as he has pursued the same approach as his father in terms of appointing leadership positions of its brigades and regiments to members of specific Alawite families in Syria. For instance, at present, Major General Bassam al-Hassan heads the RG, which are tasked primarily with protecting Damascus City and preventing any local or foreign forces opposed to the regime from evolving within the city. The RG also dictates security rules and relationship schemes that govern inter-branch engagements as well as the relationship between citizens and the regime on the other hand. It is also considered to be the official state body responsible for the coordination of military and militia activities in Syria after the outbreak of the uprising, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Shiite Iraqi militias.

As the RG’s leadership is considered among the most prominent leaders nationally, its forces has intervened and thwarted serious threats and societal security risks including the Kurdish Uprising in 2004, the Alawite-Ismaili clashes in 2005, as well as Druze-Bedouin conflict in 2001. The RG forces are organized with several regiments and brigades operating independently but report administratively to the leadership of the RG. Its units and divisions are known with names and numbers ranging from 101-106. The most prominent include the following:

• Security Bureau, led by Brigadier General Bassam Merhej.
• 101 Security Regiment: Most of its leadership is from the Khair Baik family.
• 104 Airborne Regiment: Directed towards the Presidential Palace in Damascus.
• 105 Regiment: Known as the president’s lounge, as it was led first by Bassel al-Assad, then Bashar al-Assad, and then Manaf Tlas led it until his withdrawal from the army.

Perhaps the most important reasons behind the strength and cohesive nature of the RG that binds its forces together (which some security experts see as capable of carrying out a bloodless coup) are the following:

1. The Alawite connection, which serves as the only guarantor of the RG and the regime’s continuity.
2. Internal competitiveness.
3. Departments tasked with surveilling one another.
4. Direct lines of communication to the President.
5. Maintaining the processes of appointing of dismissing RG’s leadership exclusively within the mandate of the Commander-in-Chief of the Army and the Armed Forces (Bashar al-Assad).

Second: The 4^th Armored Division

This a division of the Syrian Army subordinate to the First Corps. It receives special training and support to make it the regime’s strategic safeguard. It was founded during the rule of Hafez al-Assad when his brother Rifaat, who led the “Defense Companies” responsible for the Hama massacres in 1982, established it. The Defense Companies were later integrated and merged into the Division after Rifaat was “exiled” in 1984.

According to French media sources, the 4^th Armored Division consists of 15,000 fighters, the vast majority of which are Alawite. Moreover, the division is considered to be among the top units of the Syrian Army in terms of training and artillery, possessing the most up-to-date heavy weaponry, such as Russian T-72 Tanks.

The Division is made up of several brigades and regiments with headquarters at the main gateways of Damascus. The 555^th Paratrooper Regiment led by Brigadier General Jamal Yunes, the 154^th Regiment led by Brigadier General Jawdat Ibrahim Safi, the 40^th Armored Brigade, and the 138^th Infantry Brigade are all stationed in Muadamiyat. Zabadani, on the other hand, is home to the following battalions: military police, chemistry, engineering, monitoring, and training camp. Meanwhile, the 41^st Armored Brigade is stationed in Yaafour and the 42^nd Brigade is located in al-Sabboura. It should be noted here that all leaders of these brigades and regiments are Alawite. The 4^th Armored Division’s forces’ most important responsibilities and security functions include:

• Nominating officers to be commissioned at security directorates according the criteria of possessing absolute loyalty to the regime and sectarian identity.
• Providing the Military and Air Force Colleges with a special list of names of people to be admitted. For the most part, this list primarily favors members of the 4^th Armored Division and secondly serving members of other security agencies. This process is carried out in coordination with Branch 293 (Officers Affairs).
• The 4^th Armored Division’s Security Office, which is headed by Brigadier General Ghassan Bilal (Maher al-Assad’s chief of staff), regularly coordinates with all other security directorates and directly examines any security incidents in the country’s provinces. The bureau also sends reports from its sources and officers to the main security agencies for them to take necessary action and notify the bureau as to what measures are being taken.
• The Security Office carries out investigations in all sensitive cases that directly threaten the cohesion of the security network or pose a risk to top regime officials.
• The division has a major role in the appointment of security branch chiefs, particularly those in Damascus.

To complete this summary, it should be noted that the 4^th Armored Division is the only power whose responsibilities are limited to areas outside of Damascus. Its headquarters is located in as-Sabboura and it is not permitted to enter the capital, which stems from the concept of military sectors organizational structure with assigned responsibilities. Currently, Brigadier General Maher al-Assad leads the division and most of its officers are connected in some way to the RG, Ministry of Defense, Officers’ Affairs Bureau, and the Officers Branch.

Third: Tiger Forces (cross-military and security unit forces):

The “Tiger Forces” is a cross-agency special unit that intersects through military and security agencies. It is structured with three main elements: security and military core, volunteer and recruited Alawite manpower, and a customized administrative framework (Ministry of Defense) with an unrestricted authority to freely operate. This force has a wide margin of action and was formed to carry out a number of military and security duties, which include:

1. Quickly intervening and responding to security changes and developments. The nature of these forces allows it to make decisions without the military establishment bureaucracy. Its forces are flexible, capable and have broad powers to act.
2. Eliminating any risks or security threats against the Alawites and their spheres of influence in collaboration with military units and militias stationed nearby.
3. Providing assurances to Alawites with the active presence of Alawite Tiger Forces, thus blocking any attempt or intention to mobilize any opposition within the sect.

The Tiger Forces were formed as an alliance between AFID, the army, and the 4^th Armored Division in 2013. They receive clear social support from most Alawites, funding from Rami Makhlouf’s Bustan Association, and coverage from state media outlets. Led by Brigadier General Suheil Al Hassan, the Tiger Forces enjoy a wide range of authorities and powers, including the ability to mobilize all state institutions – including civilian and military airports – to carry out their duties. Tiger forces have intervened in most areas of military conflict, including the Damascus Suburbs, Hama, Idlib, Homs, or the Latakia suburbs.

Auxiliary Agencies

These are a group of official state agencies already existing or recently formed for the purpose of blocking and curtailing the revolutionary movement’s work and supporting central agencies with updated and accurate information. The presence of these agencies is indicative of the transformation and deployment of executive branch institutions to serve the interests of the regime and its security agencies of infiltrating and weakening revolutionary forces and push it to change coarse away from its intended objectives. Some of these agencies and bodies include:

1. Communications Directorate (CD)

This directorate was formed in early 2011 after the outbreak of the Syrian uprising. It is closer to being a special task force comprised of: Landline and Cellular Communications Surveillance Branch (known as Branch 225 of the MID), Signals Branch 211, Technical Branch from the GID, and other technical branches in other directorates, in addition to al-Ghadeer Project that is under Iranian Management. All wiretapping and jamming projects stationed in different directorates were also merged into this directorate.

Its primary mission is to surveil all landline and cellular communications, internet, and television programs concerning topics on the revolutionary movement. The directorate also furnishes other security agencies with information collected from monitored communications, grants licenses for importing communication devices, and resolves conflicts between different directorates. It is also clearly noted that most recruits to this newly formed directorate are Alawite.

2. Security Units in the Ministry of Interior

Since the start of the uprising, all personnel and employees in the Ministry of Interior have been enlisted as informants for the PID. Furthermore, the ministry was tasked with the responsibility of helping and aiding some security branches by making arrests, conducting raids, and breaking up sit-ins by force of arms.

3. Political Party Services (Ba’ath Party)

These are divisions, sections, and branches of the Ba’ath Party spread throughout Syria and tasked with collecting security-related information and reports and providing it to the security directorates and the NSB. The regulated deployment of Ba’ath Party leaders and members in society helps the regime control all social activities and trends, particularly by granting the party complete powers of oversight, coordination, and surveillance over its auxiliary grassroots organizations, such as the Revolutionary Youth Union, the Students Union, the Workers’ Unions, and the like.

4. Security Officers Stationed with Military Units

In every military unit, from the corps, directorates, and divisions, to the smallest military unit, there is a security services officer who is stationed there to secretly surveil everything that occurs within his unit among his officer colleagues, his superiors, subordinates, and even their families and civilian acquaintances. The deployed officers submits reports pertaining to the simplest matters of everyday affairs to the MID or the AFID so that they, in turn, can investigate the issue further. Most of the time, the MID and AFID carry out their measures without verifying the credibility of the information in such reports.

5. National Defense Forces and People’s Committees

After the spark of the Syrian uprising, the Syrian regime, with direction from Iran and coordination with the RG, resorted to forming so-called National Defense Forces or People’s Committees, which transformed during the crisis from military bodies to auxiliary security institutions with their own special prisons and investigation commissions. These groups are essentially an army of mercenaries, crime lords, and unemployed citizens who have been hired to fight alongside the army and the security services. These individuals enrolled in the National Defense / People’s Committees not out of belief or faith, but to earn an illegal livelihood by carrying out theft, looting, blackmailing, and kidnapping. In addition to their work as informants for the army and security services, most of the time the information they provide is frivolous and sectarian, the goal of which is to prove their loyalty to Assad. These reports cannot be contested by other agencies and are rather taken as is and used as bases for random arrests and even murders.

Based on what has been previously mentioned, it is noticed that all of the Syrian state’s facilities and institutions during Assad’s rule are essentially at the disposal and control of the security services directorates that serve the President’s interests, other individual interests, or both at the same time.

Evaluation of Security Performance in Syria

The abuses and violations committed by Syrian security agencies have mounted on all levels: socially, economically and politically to the extent it has become a systematic and a well-known culture and practice expected by all security officers and agencies. These abuses can be categorized on five levels, all of which create a climate of suppression and corruption in society. These levels are listed below:

1. Working without a Plan

Security work has been bound by the objective of tracking “direct violations” and monitoring social and economic functions according to fluid standards not regulated by any specific legal foundation. Furthermore, upon examining duties and performance outcomes of security agencies it becomes clear there is no indication of any strategic plan on all levels:

• Planning: Upon observing the dynamics of security agencies’ work, there isn’t any linear course of action that it follows, except for the further empowerment of the regime. There is no official assessment of the real power possessed by directorates, but in fact there is an exaggeration of the tasks and responsibilities of those institutions. There is no objective needs assessment study that every directorate conducts according to industry standards relating to objectives and capacities. Security work is rather closely linked with militarizing the civilian population to turn them into security agents and informants, which in turn made these agencies a locus of concealed unemployment.
• Strategic Goals: Security services and networks are generally limited to fulfil two goals: The first is connected with the regime’s expectations and objectives mentioned above, while the second involves violent intervention in matters of societal security in order to control its parameters and not solve its problems. Several great strategic objectives are absent from current security practice, such as:

1. Maintaining citizens’ identity and civic work.
2. Promoting dialogue among civilian sectors.
3. Economic security.
4. Developing security work.
5. Constructing a cohesive security sector.

• Human Resources: Training and development programs are limited to improving physical capabilities of personnel, criminology and technology education, as well as the indoctrination with the ideology of the Ba’ath Party (One leader and leading party). What the programs lack, however, are sessions that help boost the competency of security personnel either in the field of security sciences and its modern instruments and methods, or increase the level of education and familiarity with the legal system, or help build balanced relationships with the security sector.
• Budgets: Because of the absence of any clear supervisory or oversight authority, nowhere can anyone find the basis for the budget’s preparation and its sections and components as well as its calculation methods, and its consistency with the overall national economic conditions. This further reinforces assessment theories regarding these agencies on the lack of transparency, monitoring or evaluation mechanisms.

2. Legalizing Violations and Repression

Several “laws” have been coached into society’s public awareness that have been derived from the security services’ collective practice and culture, from its detainment procedures, to its investigations and accompanying inhumane methods used to extract confessions, and to its abuses of detainees. These practices were legalized and normalized, particularly after the power structure was consolidated during the events of the 1980s through practices that were engaged in by individuals and adopted by the security establishment as a whole. The most significant elements of this culture include:

• Giving security agencies open-ended authority to apprehend, search, investigate, interrogate, detain, wiretap, and arrest under martial law any citizen without receiving an approval by the judicial authority. In other words, the agencies’ power is not restricted when carrying out these operations and no branch or department has to abide by the set legal time limit when holding or detaining citizens. Accordingly, a detainee can be imprisoned for several months or years without ever appearing before a judge.
• Depriving citizens their right to request a ruling from the judiciary on the legitimacy of an arrest, blocking the right to defend detainees or appoint a lawyer during their detainment by the security services, barring detainees from knowing their fate, the charges against them, and not allowing them visitations or even knowing why they were arrested.
• Security agencies regularly exceed the legal authorities and jurisdiction stipulated by existing laws that established those agencies, and interfere in areas out of its authority of jurisdiction. An example is there interference of Military Security Directorate in the lives of civilians in matters not related to military affairs, as well as with regards to opposition movements and parties. Security agencies pressure all pro-regime political parties as well as neutral parties, and target members of opposition parties.
• Security agencies often submit requests to wiretap communications of any person or entity without abiding by legal boundaries. Any agency or directorate can wiretap any person, even if the reason is personal. Secret surveillance operations of suspects, and the video and sound clips resulting from such action, could be leaked or accessed by dishonest individuals within the security services.
• The absence of effective oversight of security officials’ work leads to major abuses being committed often resulting in the death of detainees, rape incidents, and the killing of detainees without any inquiry as to the reasons for such incidents.
• Security agencies arrest thousands of Syrians for unknown reasons, the majority of which are never handed over to the judiciary for many months. Instead they are handed over to military and counter-terrorism courts. Furthermore, there are thousands of detainees who died under torture in regime prisons.

3. Instituting Sectarianism within the Security Structures

Security agencies’ heads and commissioned officers are appointed on a sectarian and confessional basis so as to preserve power within those groups. For example, the majority of personnel and officers in AFID are Alawite, and the majority of officers and key personnel in critical departments and divisions of other security directorates are Alawites. On a secondary level, other minorities are also disproportionately appointed to key influential positions. Loyalty, rather than competence, remains the main basis for appointments. There are nonetheless sensitive positions within the security services that must remain dominated by Alawites, such as Branch 251, which is the internal branch in the GID. This also goes for the MID’s Branch 293 and the SID’s Investigation Branch. In fact, it has been impossible for any non-Alawite to head any of these branches.

4. Intentional Lack of Coordination across Agencies

The institutionalized practices of non-coordination across agencies resulted in officers and agents abusing their powers by exploiting private and public state institutions, facilities and resources. This lead to the incapacity of societal oversight, the restriction of any public engagement, and the forced nonparticipation of citizens. On the other hand, the decentralized nature of security related decision making processes such as investigating and detaining, makes citizens liable for questioning on the same matter at multiple security branches, effectively crippling any societal movement with a prevailing security culture.

5. Exploiting Authority and Spreading Corruption

The constant interference of security agencies in the work of the police force, anti-drug units, and all other institutions including civilian and service providing bureaus as well as the judiciary has contributed to the wide spread phenomenon of “blatant encroachment” by these agencies on the power and authority of both governmental and private institutions for personal interests not related to intelligence work. This has also contributed to the propagation of practices that result in personal gains and material benefits while turning a blind eye to administrative, professional, and even penal crimes. At the same time, this conduct has deepened the culture of favoritism, malicious informant reporting, and led security personnel to exploit their authority that is sanctioned by the regime, namely to blackmail businessmen, manufacturers, and investors. All of these actions stem from a lack of an oversight authority over security personnel and restricting any disciplinary actions to internal procedures dependent on the discretion of their superior officers. It should also be noted that procurement contracts for the purchase of technical equipment needed by security agencies is done secretly without government supervision through deals between officers and security agents with domestic or foreign entities. This makes corruption and embezzlement ever present and unavoidable, while cases of security information leaks for the purpose of blackmail and direct material benefit have increased due to lack of respect for confidentiality within security service departments.

II. The Need for Structural and Functional Change

Causes and Results of Deficiency

Over the past few decades, the Syrian security services have been the “big stick” in the hand of the regime and have been used, from the beginning, to deepen its authority, dominate the country, and eliminate its opponents. They have earned the terrifying reputation as the first guarantors of government stability. As a result of the role they have played in strengthening and protecting the President rule, they have gone on to significantly expand their powers by interfering in all aspects of social, economic, political, and religious life. This also has spread corruption, favoritism, and illegitimate wealth accumulation throughout the security services’ different detachments, turning them into a distinguished social class apart from the rest of society. Consequently, what makes the security services deficient is their prevailing work philosophy and security doctrine, which serves the needs of the ruler more than those of the ruled.

There are two main sources of the security service’s failings and aberrations that can be identified. The first source lies in their complex and deeply invasive structure, which has helped curb the societal activities and limited its ability to advance and develop. The second source pertains to their fluid and unrestricted functioning mechanisms, except when it pertains to the duty of protecting and preserving the regime stability.

Other reasons behind the deviation of the security agencies in Syria from fulfilling their objectives, includes the following:

• The security agencies corrupt doctrine, which stems from absolute loyalty to the head of the regime and the resulting poor professional performance.
• The serious overlap in the security agencies responsibilities and mandate often leads to conflicting practices and decisions in spite of there being a foundation for determining the competencies and powers of each apparatus and the tasks assigned to them.
• When facing other security services, the power and influence of a given security body is linked to the power and influence of its chief leader.
• The high level of competitiveness between security agencies and branches, the antipathy between them, and the race on surveilling one another in the service of the President.
• Rampant corruption in security agencies, particularly after they were tasked with countering smuggling operations in border areas, and its interferences in municipal affairs so as to block construction on farmland. This has led many to be directly involved in smuggling operations and dominating the public sector with regards to employment and appointments.
• The massive build-up of security agencies’ assets in Syria, particularly by the MID, in a way that does not correspond to the scope and volume of responsibilities assigned.

These continual failures and defects have swelled discontent and intensified popular resentment among Syrians towards security agencies and their overarching unrestricted authority over civilian life in the past few decades. This has rendered the continuation of the security services’ past structure and function impossible in the aftermath of the Syrian uprising and the policies of repression and corruption that have followed along with it. This is particularly the case ever since the security services began enlisting the Shabiha, ex-criminals, and Alawite youth to confront popular protests. In the face of this level of corruption combined with the transformations witnessed in Syria’s decaying infrastructure, the collective conviction that there is no need for security services in the future has deepened.

Security Agencies’ Competence Check

In spite of the horizontal deployment of the military and security services on the local structural levels, as well as their violent modes of operation, the Syrian uprising has revealed a number of facts that indicate signs of failure in the agencies’ professional conduct according to its own said functions. These indicators can be itemized in the following points:

1. Failure to predict the early signs of the uprising: The official narrative concerning the causes of the unrest – some of the non-political aspects of which were based on security reports that were prepared to study the causes – indicates that the security agencies were merely fulfilling service orders. The narrative held that imaginary “indicators” of unrest had been put out, which, to the security services, reinforced the theory that infiltrators were attempting to threaten public security. This reveals the depth of professional incompetence of the security services and the weakness of the tools they use to evaluate society’s conditions.
2. Institutional over-expansion and the technical incompetency of its human resources: This resulted in the inability of security agencies to develop any non-violent mechanism to confront security threats and changes. From the first day of the uprising, security agencies faced groups of peaceful protesters and used excessive violence by shooting, detaining, killing, and torturing them.
3. According to “Goebbels’s Theory,” the process of “making an enemy” demonstrates from the very beginning the absence of any ability to engage in public affairs. In the case of Syria, it shows that the security agencies were merely fulfilling the regime’s political goals at the expense of local structural unity as indicated by the claims of sectarianism and terrorism by protestors. The agencies spread fear among minority groups by propagating an Islamic narrative for the uprising where minorities will be eliminated by radical groups that were infiltrated by the regime.
4. Security agencies follow the strategy of spreading misinformation by adopting technical or detail-oriented flaws in how events are being seen by the public, or by fabricating stories and orchestrating responses to the aftermath while ignoring the real reasons behind the uprising. They even have put in place new criteria for their general security approach based on conformity with the security agencies’ narrative.
5. The “I am violent, therefrom I exist” strategy: The regime realized that any flaw in its security or military calculations would move the protest movement from a controlled variable to chaos and thus defeat the government. Therefore, the military advantage is essential to control the political process. Using this strategy, security agencies pushed societal forces towards militarization of its struggle by the excessive use of force and violent repressive practices.

The “general strategy” adhered to by security networks and agencies in dealing with the uprising relied on pushing society towards their sphere of “control and influence.” From this, several systematic policies have emerged to achieve this end without regard to losses of human life, tradition, economic power, and state institutions. The figure below illustrates the security agencies’ geographical spread at the start of the uprising.

Security agencies have also exaggerated their ability to “achieve success” by draining and exploiting other state institutions to achieve their own ends. This has thrown other state agencies into the heat of conflict with the uprising. Military and security options have only prevailed from the perspective of the political, media, and administrative agencies that justify and legitimize their actions.

Description Requirements

No serious study only develops visions and strategies for improving the performance of security agencies without first clearly providing answers to the primary question at hand with regards to the subject of reform and development. Does the Syrian state possess a security sector or does it merely have a group of agencies and networks that work in the regime’s favor?

The notion of a security sector/system refers to a system that encompasses all of the state’s institutions and other relevant bodies, and that undertake the role of ensuring the security of the state and its citizens. The most important of these bodies include:

• Political security actors, such as the Armed Forces, police, gendarmerie, paramilitary forces, Republican Guard, military and security agencies, coast guard, border patrol, customs authorities, reserve forces, the internal security units.
• The security sector administration and oversight bodies, such as the parliament/legislature and its legislative committees, the executive branch, Ministry of Defense (and its national security advisory bodies), traditional and recognized authorities, financial management institutions, civil society organizations (including the media and academia), and non-government organizations.
• The judicial branch and law enforcement institutions, such as the Ministry of Justice, bureau of prisons, criminal investigations, the public prosecution, the judiciary, judicial ruling enforcement bodies, traditional and customary judicial structures, human rights committees, and complaints investigators.
• Unofficial civil society institutions, such as media institutions, research centers, influential public policy organizations, religious institutions, and the like.

Based on this definition, the Syrian state does not possess a security sector to be reformed. The requirement of a viable, effective, and beneficial security sector is a key demand during any transition process to a safe and stable state. If scrutinized closely, we will discover that security work in Syria falls into two categories:

First: Control and policing divisions: The MID and AFID are divisions of the Syrian Army and the Armed Forces, the GID is a division administered jointly by the NSB and the Ba’ath Party, whereas the PSD is a division of the Ministry of Interior.

Second: Regime Military-Security Networks: This particularly relates to the RG and 4^th Armored Division, which shoulder the burden of engineering security operations, regulating their foundations and relationships, ensuring the regime’s security, and carrying out all procedures and operations within society when any security threats arise.

Accordingly, the official security agencies, as well as the legal system regulating their operation– whether in terms of legitimizing or legalizing certain societal security responsibilities – are the target of the reform (or deconstruction) process. This will occur in line with clear social considerations and standards and on the basis of building a truly cohesive security sector.

Learning from the Experiences of Arab Spring Countries

Despite the particularity of every country undergoing transition, the localized characteristics shared between Arab countries that have experienced widespread social unrest are numerous. At the top of this list is the concept of security and its associated institutions and formations. Demands for reforming and building a new security sector consistent with a dynamic community is a fundamental instigator behind the spread of demonstrations. In this context, the outcomes of these countries’ reform processes can be derived as an objective dimension, the details and observations of which should function as lessons in reforming Syria’s own security services. The process of reforming the security sector in Arab countries still faces a number of complex issues, which Yezid Sayigh, in his study on the dilemmas of reform and policing in Arab transitions,encapsulates in several topics, the most important of which are as follows:([2])

• Authoritarian regimes evolved systems of governing in the decadespreceding the Arab Spring that drew most political, social, and economic actorsand networks into their orbit, prompting them to adapt and accommodate.
• The dysfunction of public institutions and the worthlessness of security reform without reforming state institutions.
• The extreme fluidity of post-uprising and post-conflict transitions makes the task of reforming the security sector exceptionally difficult.
• The neglect of local and international actors, who endeavor to politicize the transition process, which serves to further undermine the state and eliminate community accord.
• The political economy dilemma with regards to vocational training, social welfare, reform costs in the security sector, and the expected outcomes of reforming job security, and the effects arising from mass-layoffs.
• The expectations about rebuilding or reforming the security sector (and the associated criminal justice system) vary based on social sectors and values, which must be taken into consideration.
• The general absence of acceptable platforms and spaces to wage peaceful politics, whether officially or unofficially.
• The focus of local governments and their regional and international counterparts on countering terrorism, which rules out any serious agenda to reform the security sector. Instead, it strengthens the tendency to use coercion in security dealings on all political and social levels.

As a review of the faltering, halfhearted attempts at security sector reform in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen after 2011 shows, their interim governments neither leaned instinctively toward openness nor methodically pursued wide-ranging dialogue with the security sector, political partners and rivals, or civil society. This presents a negative reality in the face of promoters of change and reconstruction of an appropriate security sector capable of dealing with all urgent and unexpected variables, particularly outcomes posed by the binary of extremism and confrontational policy choices.

The most important lessons gleaned from the experiences of Arab Spring countries that should not be neglected during Syria’s own reform and what comes before it can be condensed, in spite of the density of the information on them, into the ten following lessons:

1. A transitional process that creates hope and high aspirations for citizens who were politically, administratively, socially, and economically marginalized to be mobilized without developing, implementing and empowering them with practical and systematic reform programs on all levels, including in the security sector in fear of a presumed overall collapse, will create a conducive environment best exploited by counter-revolutionary groups similar to what was witnessed in Egypt and Tunis.
2. It is essential during any transitional period to promote dialogue between the civilian and security sectors. This process has two prongs:
   • Establishing procedures for accountability and oversight of the security sector and at the same time supporting professional and vocational capacity building programs for its staff and a review of salaries, working conditions, and policies regarding hiring and promotion.
   • Building popular support and solidarity around public safety and security principles as well as establishing institutions that focus on evaluating and monitoring the security sector situation, its requirements, and working mechanisms.
3. The deep correlation between security sector reform and executing legal and constitutional amendments should be realized. In this regard, international agencies operating in Tunisia, such as the United Nations Development Program and the Geneva Center for Democratic Control of the Armed Forces (which partners with the Tunisian government), are of the opinion that security service reform requires changes all legislative, constitutional, institutional, and cultural levels. This needs to occur along with a focus on the imperative of establishing programs in the Supreme Judicial Institute designed to counter corruption, respect human rights, and guarantee the principles outlined in related international treaties.
4. The importance of clarity and transparency in the overarching governing principles and procedures adopted by security agencies: In Egypt, for example, even though the transformation of the State Security Agency into the National Security Agency, and the revocation of many of its authorities and responsibilities that do not conform to their intended function and issuance of a “code of conduct and ethics” by the Ministry of Interior were all important steps, however, there still remains a necessity to forge a new social contract between the people and the security agencies. In the absence of clear mechanisms of transparency and oversight, security agencies will continue to promote itself as the safeguard of security and stability On the other hand, the transition process in Egypt neglected the need to restructure the security agencies and kept in place departments and units whose role is to curtail any opposition to the regime.
5. Seizing the historical moment of political change by creating political consensus among relevant actors on the overall framework of reforms and on developing the necessary supporting institutional mechanisms for the process. The Libyan experience demonstrates that the absence of such communal understandings, as well as the presence of rigid institutional restraints, contributed to reducing security sector reforms to the dismissal of thousands of ranking officers and agents. This was also coupled with the enactment of a “political isolation law” that was expanded to include both political and administrative positions. Similar dynamics in Yemen resulted in intensive mobilization of anti-revolutionary forces that encouraged competing elite forces to build political support for itself within the security agencies and outside of it in order to solidify its position within the new governing scene.
6. Giving the appropriate legal framing, reporting mechanisms, and appointment process for the chief of the public security agency. A number of security experts who monitored reforms enacted by Egypt’s security sector suggest that the chief of the agency should be selected by the President from outside of the agency’s workforce then ratified by the parliament after a special hearing that includes a discussion of overall policies and procedures for the security agency, an agreement on term limits for the chief, his deputies and top aids to be tied with presidential term limits.
7. The overall objective of reform processes or restructuring schemes of the security agencies is to ensure the cohesion and stability of societal foundations without any intentions for revenge among political and religious actors. It is imperative not to fall in the trap of copying the negative applications and distortions of “community policing” prevalent in some countries by forming and legalizing paramilitary and armed groups for the purpose of “maintaining peace and stability”.
8. It is necessary to consider and take into account in transitional programs the unique societal dynamics and avoid any conflict with its collective identities. For example, framing certain reforms as being in “defense of secularism” in the face of “authoritarian Islamists” or the other way around for the purpose of appeasing western states will be perceived as ignoring societal dynamics. In Tunisia, the major failure during the transition process was the fact that initial efforts to launch security sector reforms were not supported by society and was introduced within a very polarized “secular-versus-Islamic” context when it required creating political alliances and societal consensus in addition to cohesive reform policies.
9. It is essential in the reform process to build a unified security body responsible for national security affairs. It can be said that in Libya, security agencies that were formed after the revolution merged groups that belong to militias with conflicting goals and interests, those creating an ever deteriorating security reality that is difficult to reform. When the Libyan government launched a campaign against militias that did not join the official state security agency, the militias opted to withdraw to preserve their military power rather than join the agency and confront the clashing interests within the agency. This rendered the matter of arms control in Libya an issue of utmost difficulty.
10. Changing the top leaders of security agencies is merely a superficial procedure and not real reform. A national consensus over reforming the security sector is an essential condition for a transitional process with fewer challenges and obstacles. In Yemen, for instance, the removal of senior security officials loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh did not reflect a noteworthy change in the security agency practices. The reform of Yemen’s security sector should put an end to the phenomenon of multiple competing security agencies, put in place effective legislative, judicial, and civilian oversight mechanisms that monitor the security services. Likewise, the interference by security agencies in the political sphere must be banned, and mechanisms for transparency and accountability should be mandated.

Deep-Rooted Challenges in Syria

Deep-rooted challenges that hinder security sector reforms on multiple levels stem from a deteriorating state of affairs of a “failed state,” caused by two factors:

The first is the hijacking of security agencies by the regime forcing it to adapt and implement its security and military policies as dictated by the security/military networks detailed above. Additionally, the regime intentionally left a vacuum in the societal functions of the state as a result of prioritizing military and political dimensions by most relevant actors that did not take any action to prevent societal divisions and polarization, and the politicization of public services for the benefit of the regime even in the basic affairs of daily life.

The second factor relates to the monopolization of power by religious, social, and economic groups that are most loyal to the regime and their domination in key decision-making posts within state institutions while completely eliminating and crushing other opponents and depriving them of government services. This naturally reinforces pragmatist perspectives that effective reform policies should be comprehensive and not enacted individually since the process of rebuilding the state and a constructing a democratic governance system are essential requisites for the rehabilitation of security sectors and subjecting them to objective government oversight.

There is no doubt that all of these challenges that continue to impose itself on the scene during the years of conflict will become an exhausting factor in any reform procedures and processes. This demands unity of national perspectives and positions with regards to the new national security strategy. Of these challenges we can highlight the following:

1. Rebuilding prevailing social and institutional alliances relied upon by former authoritarian regimes by replacing them with new and stable alliances makes the process of building a new security sector during the transition process more coherent and cohesive. This requires setting aside all sectarian, ethnic, and partisan basis of operation by security agencies and basing the rebuilding process on principles of professionalism and patriotism in a cross-party and cross-sectarian manner.
   
2. Aligning reforms with the concept of decentralization (with its different types) since the trend displays a fragmented and eroded central authority, thus requiring an ability to carefully draft the reform process according to the requirements of local empowerment and overall national needs.
3. Taking into consideration the realism-idealism binary, since the nature of security related work in Syria both locally and regionally cannot be addressed by extremely wishful theoretical proposals for future security sector. This will put such idealistic proposals for a future security sector in the face of many obstacles at very early stages.
4. It will be difficult to control for all forms and dimensions of security agencies’ violations as a result of several reasons relating to the attempts by the regime’s deeply-rooted networks that are empowered with necessary tools, expertise and mechanisms to spread and manage chaos to serve their political objectives.
5. National authorities are absent from the scene, particularly the judiciary and military that are considered to be the two main pillars in safeguarding national security. Additionally, it is difficult to form strong political and administrative institutions that have the true will to change, enjoy popular support, able to improve oversight and legal and social evaluation mechanisms, and construct a coherent security sector that is non-sectarian and relies on societal consensus over the features of a social pact and principles of fair economic principles.
6. Local actors have conflicting security visions and goals; the regime and its loyalists will not accept any form of reform or upgrade in the work of security agencies because that would undermine their hegemony and ability to govern, in addition to considering all of the opposition as terrorists and legitimate targets for security agencies. On the other hand, most opposition political bodies adopt a demand to completely dismantle and break apart security agencies and dismiss all of its members, and then forming new agencies with no connection to the former security system. The opposition insists on completely breaking away from all current state security institutions.
7. The Syrian crisis has been internationalized and very few cards remain in the hands of Syrians. This requires a systematic approach to take back control of Syria through ending sources of political polarization regionally and internationally that increases the more the conflict is prolonged. Work should focus on crafting security arrangements that address local security threats without opposing regional and international security arrangements.
8. Several transnational projects have spread into Syria whether linked with ethnic or religious aspirations, particularly with the abundance of local conditions that facilitate and encourage such projects possessing an ability to obstruct reform processes. This requires the prioritization of confronting such agendas and projects.
9. The unique nature and characteristics of the Syrian uprising in comparison to the rest of the Arab Spring nations due to the conflict’s escalation and the fact that it encompasses multiple social, confessional, and national dimensions. The conflict has risen to the level of an evolving global war on Syrian land, as the nature of the conflict has evolved during its different phases to new dimensions with different outcomes, such as the hijacking of state institutions and its full resources and facilities in the service of the regime’s allies and militias. This makes the process of rebuilding or reform very challenging, therefore, building national consensus and a unified political vision will help guarantee the success of this transformation.
10. There is a strong correlation between restructuring the security sector and the political will for change through a political transition based on the values of justice, democracy, and effective community participation in building state and society.
11. Security, stability, and the reform of state institutions cannot be imposed in an environment of military and security chaos in terms of the lack of any arms control and the high degree of fluidity in security conditions that is conducive to using violence to impose political projects.
12. The collapse of the Syrian economy and level of massive infrastructure destruction poses a real challenge to the reform process of any agency or state institution.
13. There is an alarming level of tension and polarization based on ethnic, ideological, and sectarian backgrounds. This was a result of changes and shifts in the nature of the political conflict as well as local and international policies of managing the conflict.
14. The absence of transitional justice as an essential component to be agreed upon in political negotiations among international and regional actors increases the chances of retribution and acts of revenge and intensifying societal tensions, thus becoming an obstacle to the restructuring process.

It is worth reaffirming the assumptions of this study here, as it is not possible to discuss the restructuring of security agencies in Syria without first discussing the form that the Syrian state will take after the war. There is more than one scenario concerning this question: a centralized state, an administrative decentralization, or a federal or confederate system. What has been outlined is consistent with both scenarios: administrative decentralization or a central state.

Reform Theories: Deconstruction vs. Reconstruction

Based on what has been mentioned above with regards to the security agencies’ serious flaws and deviances both structurally and functionally, calls to fully dissolve and do away with the security services entirely have become more frequent. This is because of a growing conviction among some segments of society that there is no need for these apparatuses any more. This position may seem reasonable as an immediate reaction by many to the grossly abusive practices and attitudes of security agencies witnessed by Syrians, as well as its systematic chronic failures to protect citizens and preserve humanitarian values. The agencies have proven to only work on bolstering its absolute loyalty to the regime and protecting its authority tirelessly by repressing all activities that undermine the regime’s continued rule. This can be viewed from the perspective of the close link and mutual interest shared by the regime and security agencies, such that the absence of either one leads to a loss of interests that are deemed by security agencies as “legitimate and ongoing”.

In spite of the objective justifications for these calls, security is an absolute necessity and of utmost importance in the context of any transition process, particularly in Syria and its position as a sensitive regional and international counterbalance. Generally speaking, the most significant function of the state is that of providing security in order to attain social stability, shielding the country from security breaches that threaten its social cohesion, and protecting the sovereignty of the state. Safety and security in any country is the foundation of sustainable development and without it the country will face tremendous challenges especially in post-conflict phases when society is exhausted and distracted while simultaneously undergoing reconstruction and rebuilding processes. The absence of real and sustainable development puts a stop to reform processes and thus an absence of social, economic, and political stability.

The proposal to dismantle security agencies and networks and cease all its operations without rebuilding a national alternative with a coherent structure and functions that are closely related to its nature must be ruled out, particularly during the next phase of new Syria that has witnessed many cross-border projects that attempted to deeply root itself within Syrian society. Therefore, the theory of dismantling the existing security agencies will lead to the complete collapse of the state. Hence, the demand most consistent with the “rejection of its practices and approach / necessity of security” binary appears to be the imperative of restructuring security institutions in the next phase so that they maintain a reasonable matching standard of operation to that of other advanced countries based on solid foundations of serving the nation and its citizenry.

The term “restructuring” is defined as making the necessary correction to the administrative, technical, economic, and financial structures and systems of a given agency in such a manner that allows it to remain in operation achieve its appropriate benefits. The main goal of restructuring an institution is to increase its efficiency and benefits that correspond with its new objectives and the requirements of the next phase. In this context, the process of restructuring security agencies involves rebuilding them in a manner consistent with the public’s interest to be protected from threats to their security and stability, and safeguarding the free operation and growth of civic activities and institutions. Thus, the restructuring process must include the following:

• Rebuilding organizational structures of security agencies: This also includes the need to either eliminate or merge certain agencies and branches or establish new ones. This process also includes defining and upgrading overall goals and objectives and specific outcomes that the security sector seeks to achieve in the long term.
• Determining effective governing systems and standards most suitable for the conditions and operational peculiarities of security agencies, such that upgrading or reforming those systems takes into consideration the practicality of its implementation. Additionally, it will ensure clarity in operational procedures and oversight mechanisms through a set of binding laws that correspond with judicial standards and procedures.

Any country’s national security derives its theoretical and practical frameworks from two main principles that represent the core of the state’s existence. The first is sovereignty, which is defined as the country’s control of full jurisdiction over its territory independent of any other authority, as long as this jurisdiction is not restricted by international laws. National security functional domain is considered a direct outcome of its sovereignty in that it is an idea based on the state’s legal authority to defend itself and protect its security by taking all necessary measures. The second principle relates to the state’s essential and vital interests, which refers to a very fluid concept that at its core grants the state higher privileges and inherent authorities to fulfill its interests over all other individuals and groups, therefore, state security represents the prime domain of its interests. National security may at times become an obsession that is then constructed within the core political doctrine of the state, thus influencing its approach and practice by dealing with security as a mean and end goal at the same time. This is especially observed when the state adopts a terminology of conspiracy theories or obsession with threats and enemies in its domestic and foreign strategies, which is the justification used by police states. The orientation of a police state is reflected in many practices and norms, the most prominent of which is its suspicion and lack of confidence in the intentions of others and violent conduct domestically and abroad. In the context of preserving national security, the state further justifies actions on many fronts and often creates situations that distract from internal chronic crises or deficiencies within itself thus justifying intrusions into private spheres, purchasing new arms and weaponry and attempting to militarize society. The most dangerous and predominant goal of these types of regimes is that of violently curbing freedoms and reducing authority to an individual to justify totalitarianism.

III. Transitioning Towards a Cohesive Security Sector

Fundamentals of the National Pact between the Security Sector and Society

Establishing the national pact, that determines the dimensions and scope of the mutual relationship between the security agency and society and clarifies its mandate, rights, and responsibilities, is a necessary prerequisite for initiating the reform process. To this end, this study recommends a number of fundamentals that this social pact should incorporate:

1. The rebuilding process should be based on a new security doctrine that centers on securing the nation and citizens instead of the previous corrupt doctrine that was based on the service of the President and his loyalists.
2. There should be a complete isolation of security agencies away from political polarizations in such a way that prevents partisan practices within the security sector. Furthermore, the security sector should be primarily concerned with serving the interests of the people and providing safety and tranquility to all Syrian citizens so they may be empowered to assume full political, economic, social, cultural and religious freedoms in accordance with the constitution and laws, while maintaining public order, respecting human rights, and defending the sovereignty of the state and its territorial integrity.
3. Approaches and procedures for offering security and judicial services to Syrian citizens should be improved by providing professional training and mandating staff development programs to include specialized training on human rights, citizenship rights and responsibilities, and technical skills. Moreover, a clear legal framework should be put in place to determine the competencies and scope of mandate for security agencies in accordance with international human rights standards and agreements.
4. It is necessary to institute effective systems of management, monitoring and accountability in such a way that oversight monitors are empowered with the mandate to examine documents and records that reveal professional and patriotic practices of security agencies according to professional industry standards and indicators.
5. Reinforcing a culture that awards the security sector an important value and position within the structures of a new democratic system formed for the purpose of serving society and its citizens, protecting the values of citizenship and social justice, and is founded on the principles of transitional justice, the rule of law, and strengthening the concept of citizenship. This culture represents a true break between democratic and authoritarian regimes. Oversight and both legal and societal accountability mechanisms should be upgraded at the initial stages of the reform process.
6. Establishing a competent information agency responsible for domestic security on the condition that the agency complies with the requirements of the democratic transition and is subjected different oversight bodies (legislative, judicial, civil society as well as internal committees).

The goal of restructuring the Syrian security agencies in the future can be summed up in the protection of the state and citizens or “national security”, rather than exclusively protecting certain individuals and groups at the expense of national security. Accordingly, the specific objectives of restructuring security agencies can be outlined as follows:

1. Protecting Syria’s national unity.
2. Protecting Syria’s borders and maintaining its territorial unity and cohesion.
3. Integrating professional and active participants in the Syrian uprising within state institutions and security agencies
4. Putting an end to arming and seizing weapons from non-government factions.
5. Working to safeguard public and private sector infrastructures and preserving state institutions.
6. Protecting national programs to counter terrorism and extremism.
7. Securing plans that reinforce civil peace and ease sectarian tensions, as well as preventing acts of revenge and retribution against minorities.

Strategic Objectives for the Future Security Sector

First: Ensuring the safety and security of the country and its citizens through a series of measures and policies that reinforce objective conditions for achieving stability. Among these measures are the following:

1. Reinforcing public order and the rule of law: This can be achieved by putting in place a national strategy for addressing security threats, whether at the level of countering attempts by former regime networks to take control of key power centers within the state or at the level of confronting cross-border transnational projects. Additionally, the society’s role and position should be reinforced during the rebuilding process to assist in establishing order and the rule of law and develop community partnerships with the security sector. Recapturing Syria’s sovereignty and controlling all border crossings, consolidating security sector authority, containing arms chaos, supporting civil peace program, and strengthening the related legal frameworks at the same time along with conducting coherent media plans and programs are all necessary steps to take back control of local and societal security.
2. Putting an end to the abusive claims against citizens and groups to have committed “state security crimes such as espionage and treason” that arises from overlapping jurisdictions and scope of duties among different security agencies, and the lack of appropriate up-to-date legislation and laws, as well as weaknesses in the financial, logistical, and armament capacities to counter real crimes that threaten national security. This matter necessitates the separation of powers between branches of government, supporting and protecting a security information bank, reinforcing the position and role of oversight and complaint processing divisions, conducting capacity building and rehabilitation programs, and the decisive confrontation of all crimes against public properties and funds.
3. Putting an end to all phenomena that may legitimize forms of favoritism and cronyism by promoting a sense of national pride and loyalty and countering other forms of loyalty to tribe, geographical region or province, confessional identities, or to party affiliation where it goes against loyalty to the nation. Furthermore, it is important to clarify procedures and systems that govern internal relations within the security agency, while taking into consideration the need to develop integration mechanisms for socially diverse groups in policies, plans and budgets. Additionally, systems of evaluation, assessment and analysis, early warning systems, and complaint processing mechanisms should be adopted.
4. Reinforcing the principles and concepts of international humanitarian law and human rights law in security sector agencies through educational and training programs and the adoption of a guide for security sector operation illustrating expected best-practices that conform to laws passed during the reform process. Work should also be done to develop a code of conduct with regards to human rights standards within the security agencies in partnership with relevant actors, and improving relations between security sector institutions and civil society organizations, and building the capacity of public relations and media professionals.
5. Strengthening public policies relating to the core values for the security sector, that should consider several standards that make security operations more methodical and closer to achieving its general goals, especially being consistent with the values and aspirations of Syrian society, preserving a new national identity, protecting the constitution, and ensuring the right and freedom of practicing one’s convictions and beliefs.

Second: Building and developing the professional capacities for security sector personnel to elevate the standards of operation of the security sector consistent with the requirements posed by the transitional period through the following steps:

1. Supporting the institutionalization of the security sector according good governance standards, and ensuring the provision of services professionally, effectively and fairly.
2. Consolidating legal and legislative frameworks governing the security-related work and eliminating cross-departmental commissioning loopholes (whereby security officers are commission to other department and branches of government while reporting officially to a different ministry). Furthermore, enacting laws governing conscription and employment procedures according to clear and transparent criteria and pre-conditions related to proficiency and physical competency.
3. Revising and reforming all existing personnel-related policies and regulations, by completely repealing articles with undefined criteria and immeasurable standards, and/or by developing new performance evaluation systems as well as procedures for hiring and promotion.
4. Adopting a unified and methodical strategy for personnel training and ensuring appropriate supervision by qualified trainers in security affairs.
5. Establishing unified procedures for internal communications between security agencies and providing necessary logistical support.
6. Assessing existing infrastructures and abandoning what is deemed non-functional, and establishing commissions tasked with improving standards of security services performance while considering its needs and required resources.
7. Creating financial management systems and constantly working to overcome challenges resulting from limited resources through a work plan that determines overall priorities, strengthens planning and coordination mechanisms, reallocates available resources, and streamlines support channels.
8. Building financial capacities of the security sector in accordance with the financial policies adopted by the Ministry of Interior.

Third: Ensuring the synchronization and collaboration between the justice and security sectors: This is one of the most important factors for the success and advancement of the security sector that will curb its unlawful and disenfranchising powers, and limit its intrusive and authoritarian aggression over societal policies, provided that justice sector institutions also undergo rigorous reform processes that isolate it from the regime and its networks. The most important measures in this regard are as follows:

1. Institutionalizing the relationship between the security and justice sectors and clarify their mutual roles and mandate.
2. Establishing a protocol that formalizes the relationship between the military and civil public prosecution.
3. Mandating oversight powers to judicial bodies on detention and rehabilitation centers.
4. Issuing a special procedural guide that manages that coordination with the civil public prosecution with regards to its representation of the security agencies before the judiciary.
5. Conducting a full review of all existing memoranda of understanding between the Ministries of Justice and Interior with regards to judicial police work.
6. Enacting a special law for the military judiciary by the legislative authority, creating a legal framework that regulates forensic laboratories, and amending laws and internal charters pertaining to the police force and other domestic security forces.

Fourth: Confronting all potential security risks and threats in Syria by adopting a series of counter-measures and policies, the most important of which include:

1. Forming committees that focus on investigations and seeking accountability for human rights violations, identifying those responsible, and taking them to court.
2. Reforming the approaches and working mechanisms observed by the leadership of the National Armed Forces, and launching re-integration programs for Free Syrian Army (FSA) members by building their capacity and competency to be able to carry out police work and control local security, while reporting to relevant central agencies. This should be carried out by first restructuring the National Armed Forces which requires supplementing them with additional military units/divisions and members
3. Pursuing confidence-building measures between the political leadership of the opposition and the FSA through regular communication. Additionally, an initiative should be promoted to develop leadership and management skills among armed opposition groups and ensure their full compliance with the international principles of human rights.
4. Establishing an oversight committee that prepares the ground for launching and managing security sector reforms during the transitional period. This committee can be formed by civilian opposition members, the FSA, and defected security officers, then may expand to include trustworthy members from the police and armed forces. This committee shall closely examine the practice and conduct of members of armed opposition groups and determine those who committed any violations and hold them accountable.
5. Controlling and securing arms by securing warehouses that store traditional weaponry, and collecting all other medium and heavy weaponry. Additionally, weapons stores located in buildings controlled by the Ba’ath Party or other allied political parties in addition to popular organization shall also be secured.

The Restructuring Process

The diagram to the right illustrates the stages and necessary measures for the restructuring process that are based on principles of change and a seamless coherent transition, in fear of unexpected results of sudden changes on the integrity of the country. It also ensures that security agencies are restructured within the national framework and complementing other state institutions. These processes shall reflect a series of political agreements representing the true will for change and political transition without any controlling or authoritarian ambitions.

Phase I: Issuing a set of legislation and decrees that are necessary for the restructuring process to address the following points:

1. Maintaining the centralization of the NSB and holding it as the head and leader of the security agencies. The NSB, which may change its name, issues general security policies, and is responsible for implementing them, and taking all legal measures that reinforce security and civil peace.
2. Reconfiguring the roles and functions carried out by security and military networks and reorienting them within the military establishment new plans and approaches. Additionally, ending and dissolving secondary and auxiliary security institutions.
3. Merging the AFID and the MID, and regarding it as part of the military intelligence institution, since AFID is part of the military and armed forces. The merged agency reports directly to the Chief of Staff of the Military and has a clear mandate for exclusively military affairs, such as collecting and assessing intelligence information on military and special operations, and protecting the military from any espionage or foreign security breaches. It is sternly cautioned from interfering in civilian affairs, and whenever collected intelligence and security information relates to civilian affairs it is forwarded to the domestic intelligence agency or to the police or judiciary depending on the case. A division or branch of this agency shall be responsible for securing military and civilian airports and reports to the head of MID.
4. Merging the PSD with the GID (State Security Agency) and positioning them under the administration and management of the NSB with its new name as the National Public Security Agency (NPSA), the head of which is appointed by a decision of the Prime Minister. NPSA operates as an intelligence agency, collecting and analyzing security data both domestically and abroad. It is also assigned the responsibility of protecting and securing the state both domestically and abroad. This agency shall have two main divisions: the Domestic Intelligence Agency and the Foreign Intelligence Agency.
5. Outlawing extraordinary courts, limiting the mandate of the judiciary to civilian affairs including security-related crimes. Furthermore, the military judiciary, the restrictions on its mandate, and its practical operational mechanisms should be reconsidered and revised.
6. Ending all emergency laws (or similar temporary or exceptional laws) as well as other unpublished laws regarding arrests, detentions and trials.
7. Upgrading the legislations that define crimes against domestic and foreign security that fall within the mandate of the security agencies.
8. Subjecting the security agencies to parliamentary oversight that monitors their powers, mechanisms, and scope of work.

Phase II: Launching systematic reforms to internal structure to include the following steps:

1. Referring all personnel involved in war crimes, torture, and human rights violations to the judiciary and launching behavioral and professional rehabilitation programs.
2. Rebalancing the professional and membership structure of the security services, issuing general work and employment laws in accordance with health, psychology, and educational requisites without taking sect into account, and repealing delegation laws.
3. Re-integrating personnel that were not involved in war crimes and human rights violations into the new security agencies after ensuring their ability to integrate and continue to work, and their capacity to participate in the political transition process.
4. Developing the administrative and technical infrastructure for the security agencies, taking into consideration structural adjustments that will be implemented such that it will be able to quickly resume its work and perform their mandated duties.
5. Maintaining documents and records belonging to security agencies and granting access to its data archives (including data relating to public or private entities) in such a way that does not pose any risks to the state or society. It has been proven that denying the people access to information leads to widespread corruption and the abuse of power by political authorities.
6. Dismissing corrupt members from security agencies, even if the judiciary is unable to indict them for committing violent crimes or human rights violation
7. Rebuilding trust between security agencies and citizens, so as to establish a cooperative relationship between them and change the stereotype held by Syrian citizens that the security agencies are tools of suppression and oppression used by the regime to dominate.
8. Integrating rebel forces into the military and security institutions, particularly those of influence and good reputation in their communities. This will directly impact the success level of the democratic transitional process.
9. Making the best use of security agencies’ buildings and facilities including all of its contents and data, as well as the full archives, and preserving it to support security work or uncovering documents that help prove war crimes committed by the regime before international courts.
10. Benefitting from material resources not damaged by the war, such as technological and, communication devices and intelligence equipment, and working to upgrade it and use it within its intended purpose.
11. Recruiting and making the best use of human resources and skills developed by many opposition members who gained experience in security or intelligence work during the uprising. Those skilled individuals should be employed by the new security agency according to professional standards, and be given special trainings to improve their security and intelligence capacities.

Phase III: Constructing the remaining components of the security sector and establishing complementing working conditions between the security and civil sectors:

1. Designating special parliamentary sessions to deliberate, consider and adopt the security plan and its budget.
2. Forming a parliamentary committee with follow-up and oversight authority over security agencies.
3. Empowering the public security agency with a media strategy that enshrines the standards and value of security.
4. Holding organized public dialogues between civilians and the security agencies to address ways to strengthen societal security.
5. Encouraging the establishment of specialized security research centers that publish research to reinforce the complementing consolidation of different agencies within the security sector
6. Regulating the concept of rapid intervention operations by instituting a clear definition of national security threats and rules of civil peace.
7. Establishing specialized security academies to offer professional training and educational diplomas to new officers, noncommissioned officers, and other personnel.

An Overall Vision for the “National Public Security Agency”

From what was mentioned above, after the restructuring of the security agencies, two new security apparatuses will be created:

1. 1.The Military Intelligence Agency which is fully subordinate to the Ministry of Defense, and focuses on securing the national army, with its various names, structures, and divisions. This agency has no mandate or jurisdiction over
2. 2.National Public Security Agency (agency is subordinate to Prime Ministry, and is concerned with ensuring domestic security and stability, maintaining national identity, and preserving civil peace.

The limits of cooperation between these two agencies is based on the principle of “information sharing” according to the mandate for each agency while collaborating to protect the state domestically and abroad, and protecting its sovereignty.

National Public Security Agency

This agency is concerned with safeguarding the country’s domestic security, protecting state institutions, preventing security breaches and information leaks, uncovering espionage, coordinating with the state institutions such as education, media, and economic institutions in service of the national interest, and preserving the unity and integrity of the nation and society. It comprises two agencies. The first is the Domestic Intelligence Agency, and the second is the Foreign Intelligence Agency. This is clarified in the figure below:

First: Domestic Intelligence Agency (DIA)

The Domestic Intelligence Agency (DIA) encompasses intelligence and operational functions. Its intelligence activity centers around the following measures:

• Administrative measures: Following up on the execution of orders and measures related to security planning, protection of secrets, and preventing breaches and information leaks.
• Legal measures: These are measures and procedures that ensure legal protections for security personnel operations, often submitting proposals for laws and decrees to be enacted to assist in facilitating and improving security work.
• Military measures: If the counter-intelligence services discover either acts of sabotage in a certain region or operations that threaten the country’s security, it will deploy military forces to confront these incidents and blockade or raid a certain area with special units.

The DIA’s operational activities focus on information gathering and source management. One of its most important objectives is preserving the security and secrets of the state, and the political, economic, and security resulting ramifications. Additionally, it provides border control services to monitor inward and outward movements, safeguards all national political activities whether of the authority or other local political entities, uncovers and prevents sabotage activity, and provides security for important national sites (such as ministries, electricity plants, factories, etc.) and critical military and civilian targets.

Operational activities are assigned according to the following departments:

1. Management of agents and sources: Tasks include recruitment, coaching, and training of agent and sources, and monitoring their activities.
2. Technical Department: Manages technical and electronic sources, gathers data and offers technical support for counter intelligence and electronic archiving operations.
3. Information Analysis Department: Analyzes and evaluates information, then acts upon the analysis and provides recommendations on how to maximize benefits from such information
4. Field Operations Department: Carries out surveillance, protection, and communications operations, as well as executes special operations, such as raiding facilities, and arresting suspects in accordance to an arrest or search warrants.
5. Counter-Terrorism Department: Specializes in gathering information about terrorist and sabotage activities and movements and proposing how best to respond to such threats.
6. Counter-Espionage Department: Prevents information leaks and breaches from state institutions and works to protect national security.
7. Administrative Affairs and Supply Chain Department: This department has individual sub-offices tasked with administrative roles such performance evaluations, personnel skills development and rehabilitation programs and procurement.

Second: Foreign Intelligence Agency (FIA)

The Foreign Intelligence Agency (FIA) is tasked with protecting and maintaining state interests abroad, and managing external intelligence stations. It includes the following departments:

1. Information Department: Collects and analyzes information requested by the political leadership, instructs agents, puts in place plans and missions according to the requirements and visions of the general security strategy.
2. Foreign Stations Department: Tasks include instructing stations as to what the plans and commands are, following up on its implementation, and monitoring it.
3. Foreign Operations Department: Surveils terrorist groups and destructive cross-border movements whose activities may spread into the country or harm state interests abroad.
4. Operational Intelligence Department: Tasks include gathering and using information, and training intelligence officers.
5. Technical Department: Provides technical support for foreign operations and protects stations and state institutions abroad from breaches, wiretapping, and cyber threats.
6. Supplies and Logistical Support Department.

Conclusion

Political consensus over the importance of security sector reform both structurally and functionally is a primary basis for the success of the transitional process towards a state with real institutions under the rule of law. Therefore, national dialogue about the paths, mechanisms, and forms of transition away from political polarizations while focusing more on security threats facing the state and its citizens is an essential step. A truly national dialogue works to recognize unique and local conditions that may lead to a total collapse of the state, and explores strategies and mechanisms to avoid becoming a failed state while being fully conscious of the requirements and requisites of regional security, by means of highlighting the goal and priority of solidifying local and regional stability, and reinforcing mutual collaboration and coordination with civilian components or with relevant agencies in neighboring countries.

In order to transition away from a state of “cancerous swelling” by existing security agencies towards a coherent national security sectorthrough a relatively smooth process, it is necessary to take several steps and measures on civilian, military, and security levels that stem from a necessity of interconnectedness and synchronization between the overall reform and transition processes and national trends and constructive societal and political interactions. This realization further facilitates reaching a true political solution, and in this sense the current negotiations track in Geneva -that continues to debate non-essential issues because of the US-Russian talks - does not indicate a commitment to establish a transitional period that ensures real change on political, constitutional and social levels. This is stalling the progress of reform. Serious work by the international community to discuss the core issues at hand -and not avoid or sideline them- will help create a conducive environment with necessary factors for regaining societal and national stability.

There is no doubt that questions regarding security reform (systematically, functionally, and structurally) are among the most important questions awaiting objective responses that take into account the emerging conditions and escalating variables that shook Syria. This process, in and of itself, is complex and will not be fixed – based on Syria’s unique situation – using or borrowing prepackaged reform theories, or models and schemes that ignore and undervalue the nature and importance of national security, on one hand, or theories that overlook the necessities of maintaining cohesion and preventing full collapse and chaos on the other. This requires a professional, national effort that both recognizes the demands and requirements set forth by local, regional, and international security structures and seeks to build a cohesive security sector.

Dr. Ammar Kahf Talks about cessation deal reached by US and Russia

Dr. Ammar Kahf Talks About Turkey's Euphrates Shield operation in Syria

Abstract: The Syrian uprising took the regional powers by surprise and was able to disrupt the regional balance of power to such an extent that  the Syrian file has become a more internationalized matter than a regional one. Syria has become a fluid scene with multiple spheres of influence by  countries, extremist groups, and non-state actors. The long-term goal of re-establishing peace and stability can be achieved by taking strategic steps in empowering local administration councils to gain legitimacy and provide public services including security.

Introduction

Regional and international alliances in the Middle East have shifted significantly because of the popular uprisings during the past five years. Moreover, the Syrian case is unique and complex whereby international relations theories fall short of explaining or predicting a trajectory or how relevant actors’ attitudes will shift towards the political or military tracks. Syria is at the center of a very fluid and changing multipolar international system that the region has not witnessed since the formation of colonial states over a century ago.
In addition to the resurrection of transnational movements and the increasing security threat to the sovereignty of neighboring states, new dynamics on the internal front have emerged out of the conflict. This commentary will assess opportunities and threats of the evolving alignments and provide an overview of these new dynamics with its impact on the regional balance of power.

The Construction of a Narrative

Since March 2011, the Syrian uprising has evolved through multiple phases. The first was the non-violent protests phase demanding political reforms that was responded to with brutal use of force by government security and military forces. This phase lasted for less than one year as many soldiers defected and many civilians took arms to defend their families and villages. The second phase witnessed further militarization of civilians who decided to carry arms and fight back against the aggression of regime forces towards civilian populations. During these two phases, regional countries underestimated the security risks of a spillover of violence across borders and its impact on the regional balance of power. Diplomatic action focused on containing the crisis and pressuring the regime to comply with the demands of the protestors, freeing of prisoners, and amending the constitution and several security based laws.

On the other hand, the Assad regime attempted to frame a narrative about the uprising as an “Islamist” attempt to spread terrorism, chaos and destruction to the region. Early statements and actions by the regime further emphasized a constructed notion of the uprising as a plot against stability. The regime took several steps to create the necessary dynamics for transnational radical groups (both religious and ethnic based) to expand and gain power. Domestically, it isolated certain parts of Syria, especially the countryside, away from its core interest of control and created pockets overwhelmed by administrative and security chaos within the geography of Syria where there is a “controlled anarchy”. It also amended the constitution in 2012 with minor changes, granted the Kurds citizenship rights, abolished the State Security Court system but established a special terrorism court that was used for protesters and activists. The framing of all anti-regime forces into one category as terrorists was one of the early strategies used by the regime that went unnoticed by regional and international actors. At the same time, in 2011 the regime pardoned extremist prisoners and released over 1200 Kurdish prisoners most of whom were PKK figures and leaders. Many of those released later took part in the formation of Jabhat al-Nusra, ISIS, and YPG forces respectively. This provided a vacuum of power in many regions, encouraging extremist groups to occupy these areas thus laying the legal grounds for excessive use of force in the fight against terrorism.

The third phase witnessed a higher degree of military confrontations and a quick “collapse” of the regime’s control of over 60% of Syrian territory in favor of revolutionary and opposition forces. Residents in 14 provinces established over 900 Local Administration Councils between 2012 and2013. These Councils received their mandate and legitimacy by the consensus or election of local residents and were tasked with local governance and the administration of public services. First, the Syrian National Council, then later the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces were established as the official representative of the Syrian people according to the Friends of Syria group. The regime resorted to heavy shelling, barrel bombing and even chemical weapons to keep areas outside of its control in a state of chaos and instability. This in return escalated the level of support for revolutionary forces to defend themselves and maintain the balance of power but not to expand further or end the regime totally.

During this phase, the internal fronts witnessed many victories against regime forces that was not equally reflected on the political progress of the Syria file internationally. International investment and interference in the Syrian uprising increased significantly on the political, military and humanitarian levels. It was evident that the breakdown of the Syrian regime during this phase would threaten the status quo of the international balance of power scheme that has been contained through a complex set of relations. International diplomacy used soft power as well as proxy actors to counter potential threats posed by the shifting of power in Syria. Extremist forces such as Jabhat al-Nusra, YPG and ISIS had not yet gained momentum or consolidated territories during this phase. The strategy used during this phase by international actors was to contain the instability and security risk within the borders and prevent a regional conflict spill over, as well as prevent the victory of any internal actor. This strategy is evident in the UN Security Council Resolution 2042 in April 2012, followed by UNSCR 2043, which call for sending in international observers, and ending with the Geneva Communique of June 2012. The Geneva Communique had the least support from regional and international actors and Syrian actors were not invited to that meeting. It can be said that the heightened level of competition between regional and international actors during this phase negatively affected the overall scene and created a vacuum of authority that was further exploited by ISIS and YPG forces to establish their dream states respectively and threaten regional countries’ security.

The fourth phase began after the chemical attack by the regime in August of 2013 where 1,429 victims died in Eastern Damascus. This phase can be characterized as a retreat by revolutionary military forces and an expansion and rise of transnational extremist groups. The event of the chemical attack was a very pivotal moment politically because it sent a strong message from the international actors to the regional actors as well as Syrian actors that the previous victories by revolutionary forces could not be tolerated as they threatened the balance of power. Diplomatic talks resulted in the Russian-US agreement whereby the regime signed the international agreement and handed over its chemical weapons through an internationally administered process. This event was pivotal as it signified a shift on the part of the US away from its “Red Line” in favor of the Russian-Iranian alignment, which perhaps was their first public assertion of hegemony over Syria. The Russian move prevented the regime’s collapse and removed the possibility of any direct military intervention by the United States. It is at this point that regional actors such as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia began to strongly promote a no-fly zone or a ‘safe zone’ for Syrians in the North of Syria. During this time, international actors pushed for the first round of the Geneva talks in January 2014, thus giving the Assad regime the chance to regain its international legitimacy. Iran increased its military support to all of Hezbollah and over 13 sectarian militias that entered Syria with the objective of regaining strategic locations from the opposition.

The lack of action by the international community towards the unprecedented atrocities committed by the Syrian regime, along with the administrative and military instability in liberated areas created the atmosphere for cross-border terrorist groups to increase their mobilization levels and enter the scene as influential actors. ISIS began gaining momentum and took control over Raqqa and Deir Azzour, parts of Hasaka, and Iraq. On September 10, 2014, President Obama announced the formation of a broad international coalition to fight ISIS. Russia waited on the US-led coalition for one year before announcing its alliance to fight terrorism known as 4+1 (Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah) in September 2015. The Russian announcement came at the same time as ground troops and systematic air operations were being conducted by the Russian armed forces in Syria. In December 2015, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of an “Islamic Coalition” of 34 largely Muslim nations to fight terrorism, though not limited to ISIS.

These international coalitions to fight terrorism further emphasized the narrative of the Syrian uprising which was limited to countering terrorism regardless of the internal outlook of the agency yet again confirming the regime’s original claims. As a result, the Syrian regime became the de facto partner in the war against terrorism by its allies while supporters of the uprising showed a weak response. The international involvement at this stage focused on how to control the spread of ISIS and protect each actor from the spillover effects. The threat of terrorism coupled with the massive refugee influx into Europe and other parts of the world increased the threat levels in those states, especially after the attacks in the US, France, Turkey and others. Furthermore, the PYD-YPG present a unique case in which they receive military support from the United States and its regional allies, as well as coordinate and receive support from Russia and the regime, while at the same time posing a serious risk to Turkey’s national security. Another conflictual alliance is that of Baghdad; it is an ally of Iran, Russia and the Syrian regime; but it  also coordinates with the United States army and intelligence agencies.

The allies of the Assad regime further consolidated their support of the regime and framing the conflict as one against terrorism, used the refugee issue as a tool to pressure neighboring countries who supported the uprising. On the other hand, the United States showed a lack of interest in the region while placing a veto on supporting revolutionary forces with what was needed to win the war or even defend themselves. The regional powers had a small margin between the two camps of providing support and increasing the leverage they  have on the situation inside Syria in order to prevent themselves from being a target of such terrorism threats  of the pro-Iran militias as well as ISIS.
In Summary, the international community has systematically failed to address the root causes of the conflict but instead concentrated its efforts on the conflict's aftermath. By doing so, not only has it failed to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Syria, it has also succeeded in creating a propitious environment for the creation of multiple social and political clashes, hence aggravating the situation furthermore. The different approaches adopted by both the global and regional powers have miserably failed in re-establishing balance and order in the region. By insisting on assuming a conflictual stance rather than cooperating in assisting the vast majority of the Syrian people in the creation of a new balanced regional order, they have assisted the marginalized powers in creating a perpetual conflict zone for years to come.

Security Priorities

The security priorities of regional and international actors have been in a realignment process, and the aspirations of regional hegemony between  Turkey, Arab Gulf states, Iran, Russia and the United States are at odds. This could be further detailed as follows:

•    The United States: Washington’s actions are essentially a set of convictions and reactions that do not live up to its foreign policy frameworks. The “fighting terrorism” paradigm has further rooted the “results rather than causes” approach, by sidelining proactive initiatives and instead focusing on fighting ISIS with a tactical strategy rather than a comprehensive security strategy in the region.
•    Russia: By prioritizing the fight against terror in the Levant, Moscow gained considerable leverage to elevate the Russian influence in the Arab region and an access to the Mediterranean after a series of strategic losses in the Arab region and Ukraine. Russia is also suffering from an exacerbating economic crisis. Through its Syria intervention, Russia achieved three key objectives:
1.    Limit the aspirations and choices of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey in the new regional order.
2.    Force the Iranians to redraft their policies based on mutual cooperation after its long control of the economic, military and political management of the Assad regime.
3.    Encourage Assad’s allies to rally behind Russia to draft a regional plan under Moscow’s leadership and sphere of influence.
•    Iran: Regionally, Iran intersects with Washington and Moscow’s prioritizing of fighting terrorism over dealing with other chronic political crises in the region. It is investing in fighting terrorism as a key approach to interference in the Levant. The nuclear deal with Iran emerged as an opportunity to assign Tehran as the “regional police”, serving its purpose of exclusively fighting ISIS. The direct Russian intervention in Syria resulted in Iran backing off from day-to-day management of the Syrian regime’s affairs. However, it still maintains a strong presence in most of the regional issues – allowing it to further its meddling in regional security.
•    Turkey: Ankara is facing tough choices after the Russian intervention, especially with the absence of US political backing to any solid Turkish action in the Levant. It has to work towards a relative balance through small margins for action, until a game changer takes effect. Until then, Turkey’s options are limited to pursuing political and military support of the opposition, avoiding direct confrontation with Russia and increasing coordination with Saudi Arabia to create international alternatives to the Russian-Iranian endeavors in the Levant. Turkey’s options are further constrained by the rise of YPG/PKK forces as a real security risk that requires full attention.
•    Saudi Arabia: The direct Russian intervention jeopardizes the GCC countries’ security while it enhances the Iranian influence in the region, giving it a free hand to meddle in the security of its Arab neighbors. With a lack of interest from Washington and the priority of fighting terror in the Levant, the GCC countries are only left with showing further aggression in the face of these security threats either alone or with various regional partnerships, despite US wishes. One example is the case in Yemen, where they supported the legitimate government. Most recently in Lebanon, it cut its financial aid and designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Riyadh is still facing challenges of maintaining Gulf and Arab unity and preventing the plight of a long and exhausting war.
•    Egypt: Sisi is expanding Egyptian outreach beyond the Gulf region, by coordinating with Russia which shares Cairo’s vision against popular uprisings in the Arab region. He also tries to revive the lost Egyptian influence in Africa, seeking economic opportunities needed by the deteriorating Egyptian economic infrastructure.
•    Jordan: It aligns its priorities with the US and Russia in fighting terrorism, despite the priorities of its regional allies. Jordan suffices with maintaining security to its southern border and maintaining its interests through participating in the so-called “Military Operation Center - MOC”. It also participates and coordinates with the US-led coalition against terrorism.
•    Israel: The Israeli strategy towards Syria is crucial to its security policy with indirect interventions to improve the scenarios that are most convenient for Israel. Israel exploits the fluidity and fragility of the Syrian scene to weaken Iran and Hezbollah and exhaust all regional and local actors in Syria. It works towards a sectarian or ethnic political environment that will produce a future system that is incapable of functioning and posing a threat to any of its neighbors.

During the recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation conference in Istanbul the Turkish leadership criticized Iran in a significant move away from the previous admiration of that country but did not go so far as cutting off ties. One has to recognize that political realignments are fluid and fast changing in the same manner that the “black box” of Syria has contradictions and fragile elements within it. The new Middle East signifies a transitional period that will witness new alignments formulated on the terrorism and refugee paradigms mentioned above. Turkey needs Iran’s help in preventing the formation of a Kurdish state in Syria, while Iran needs Turkey for access to trade routes to Europe. The rapprochement between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as well as other Gulf States signifies a move by Turkey to diffuse and isolate polarization resulting from differences on Egypt and Libya and building a common ground to counter the security threats.

Opportunities and Policy Alternatives

The political track outlined in UNSC 2254 has been in place and moving on a timeline set by the agreements of the ISSG group. The political negotiations aim to resolve the conflict from very limited angles that focus on counter terrorism, a permanent cease-fire, and the maintenance of the status quo in terms of power sharing among the different groups. This political track does not resolve the deeper problems that have caused instability and the regional security threat spillover. This track does not fulfill the security objectives sought by Syrian actors as well as regional countries.

Given the evolving set of regional alignments that has struck the region, it is important to assess alternative and parallel policies to remain an active and effective actor. It is essential to look at domestic stabilizing mechanisms and spheres of influence within Syria that minimize the security and terrorism risks and restore state functions in regions outside of government control. Local Administration Councils (LAC) are bodies that base their legitimacy on the processes of election and consensus building in most regions in Syria. This legitimacy requires further action by countries to increase their balance of power in the face of the threat of terrorism and outflow of refugees.
A major priority now for regional power is to re-establish order and stability on the local level in terms of developing a new legitimacy based on the consensus of the people and on its ability to provide basic services to the local population. The current political track outlined by the UNSC 2254 and the US/Russian fragile agreements can at best freeze the conflict and consolidate spheres of influence that could lead to Syria’s partition as a reality on the ground. The best scenario for regional actors at this point in addition to supporting the political track would be to support and empower local transitional mechanisms that can re-establish peace and stability locally. This can be achieved by supporting and empowering both local administration councils and civil society organizations that have a more flexible work environment to become a soft power for establishing civil peace. Any meaningful stabilization project should begin with the transitioning out of the Assad regime with a clear agreed timetable.

Over 950 Local Councils in Syria were established during 2012-2013, and the overwhelming majority were the result of local electing of governing bodies or the consensus of the majority of residents. According to a field study conducted by Local Administration Councils Unit and Omran Center for Strategic Studies, at least 405 local councils operate in areas under the control of the opposition including 54 city-size councils with a high performance index. These Councils perform many state functions on the local level such as maintaining public infrastructure, local police, civil defense, health and education facilities, and coordinating among local actors including armed groups. On the other hand, Local Councils are faced with many financial and administrative burdens and shortcomings, but have progressed and learned extensively from their mistakes. The coordination levels among local councils have increased lately and the experience of many has matured and played important political roles on the local level.

Regional powers need domestic partners in Syria that operate within the framework of a state institution not as a political organization or an armed group. Local Councils perform essential functions of a state and should be empowered to do that financially but more importantly politically by recognizing their legitimacy and ability to govern and fill the power vacuum. The need to re-establish order and peace through Local Councils is a top priority that will allow any negotiation process the domestic elements of success while achieving strategic security objectives for neighboring countries.

Published In The Insight Turkey, Spring 2016, Vol. 18, No. 2

Dr. Ammar Kahf commented on the latest developments in Aleppo where over 300,000 residents are now under seige. Dr. Kahf said the regime and its allies have been systematically using hunger nad starvation and beseiging cities as a tool of war. A sustainable solution should be reached through UNSC 2254 without Assad and by establishing order and stability

Executive Summary

Omran for Strategic Studies conducted a survey of the local councils operating in areas under opposition forces that include 105 local councils from the following provinces: Damascus, Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb, Dara’a, Al Quneitra, Homs, Hama, and Lattakia. The scope of the questionnaire focuses on the nature of the role that local councils play in areas under control of nationalistic opposition forces specifically. The questionnaire also asks responders to take into consideration the international diplomatic and political efforts to find a solution to the Syrian crisis based on the assumption that local councils are a key factor for stability during the current crisis and in a future transitional phase.  
The results of the survey are as follows:

•    Local councils mainly fulfill a service role built upon the legitimacy they receive from the populace but at the same time hold great potential for political effectiveness.
•    The main mechanisms for forming local councils are general agreement and elections and there is a lesser dependence on appointments and individual activists’ efforts.
•    In general, local councils have good relationships amongst themselves as well as with nationalistic opposition groups.
•    Despite a general acceptance among local councils about the idea of negotiations, this does not translate into their acceptance of local truces.
•    A majority of the sample insisted on limiting the concept of negotiation to studying ways of establishing a transitional governing council.
•    A majority of the sample supports the Higher Negotiations Committee with the remainder of the sample taking an opposition position.
•    The local councils sample confirmed that the issue of Bashar Al Assad is the main issue preventing the success of any negotiations.
•    More than 2/3 of the sample prefers a decentralized administrative nationalistic governing structure for Syria in accordance with the local populace’s desire.
•    The services and civil peace are on the priority list for the local councils during the transitional phase.
 
Introduction

Local councils are one of the main products of the Syrian revolution since it expresses the change in the relationship with the capitol on one hand and a tool for managing the transitional phase on the other. Four years have passed since the creation of the local councils during which they achieved notable successes and passed through difficult obstacles. At the same time, international efforts are ongoing to push forward a political process through negotiations while investing in the local councils in this regard, taking into consideration the importance of local councils and their current roles giving them significant legitimacy from the ground. As such, it is of great importance to study local councils in their service and political roles with the objective of analyzing the nature of those roles and significant factors effecting each. In the end, there are recommendations on how to strengthen local councils as an engine for political momentum.

This analytical paper sheds light on the political role of local councils and its manifestations in the various local partial truces. The paper also attempts to analyze the relationship between local councils and both military and political opposition groups. In addition, the paper looks at local council positions on the negotiation process, specific criteria that local councils view as part of a political vision, their relationship with the Higher Negotiations Committee that represents the Syrian opposition and finally the obstacles facing local councils during the transitional phase.

Local Councils: Existing Service Role and Characteristics of an Emerging Political Role

Mechanism for forming local councils are limited to elections, general agreement, appointments, and individual activist efforts. The survey revealed that a majority, 57%, of surveyed local councils formed through a general agreement on a local level. 38% of the sample identified elections as the chosen mechanism. The results revealed the least dependence on appointments (3%) and individual activist efforts (2%) as mechanisms for forming local councils, both of which combined account for 5% of the respondents’ answers.

**The fact that general agreements were the most used mechanism to form local councils is best understood as a result of the lack of security and stability in Syria, as well as the demographic changes in local communities which made it impossible for all the native residents of a locality to participate in elections. In addition, the general agreement mechanism allows local council members to avoid technical issues related to the election process (lists of candidates, election laws, voting centers, and vote counting). These technical processes require legal and technical expertise not widely available among the local councils.  When comparing these results with the results of a past study about local council needs conducted by Omran’s  Local Council’s Unit we found that there was a slight increase in the preference for elections with 35.75% in the previous survey and 38% in this recent survey.  This slight increase is as result of better organized local elections, higher participation, and better nomination processes – this is especially the case in Eastern Ghouta in Rural Damascus.

The roles played by local councils in areas controlled by nationalistic opposition groups depend upon the resources available to the councils, local support for the council, and a support network for fulfilling the council’s assumed role. The survey results showed that 57% of the respondents identified the councils’ roles as service oriented and focused on offering relief, infrastructure, health, and education services. The second largest group of respondents, 42%, identified the councils’ role as both service and politically oriented. These respondents identified the political activities of local councils as follows: public and political statements, attending political events, organizing protests, conducting community reconciliations, and conducting negotiations with the regime or other groups related to the regime. The remaining 1% of the respondents identified the local councils’ roles as purely political.

**The service role of local council’s takes precedence over the political role despite the local council’s possessing great potential and strong political capital, as seen here:    
1.    Local legitimacy stemming from their representation of the local population through elections or general agreement;
2.    The notable success that local councils have displayed in filling the roles of state institutions in areas outside of Assad regime control and their ability to completely represent the political and ideological positions of local populations. Also, local councils are able to attract local talent and local leadership to participate in administrative affairs.
3.    Local councils have political legitimacy that extends from the regime’s acceptance of local councils as a legitimate party to negotiate with, as was the case in Zabadani, and in other cases international organizations and some nations depend directly on local councils to implement relief projects on the ground. Furthermore, local councils maintain working relationships with the political Syrian opposition and other local opposition actors who coordinate directly with the local councils on revolutionary and political matters.

The most significant challenges impeding a greater political role for local councils are:
1.    Local council members who believe that local councils should focus only on the service sector;
2.    Ongoing conflicts of interest between local councils and nationalistic armed opposition groups and political opposition groups.
3.    The lack of a stable political process in which the local councils can play an active and productive role other than providing service.

Local Councils and Opposition Powers: A Positive View on Intertwined Relations

In general, the survey results show that the sample has positive relationships with both the Syrian Opposition’s National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces and the Interim Government. The percentage of respondents who chose to describe their relationship with the NCORF as “Good” is 37%, while 25% described the relationship as “Bad” and another 38% as “Acceptable”. In regards to the Interim Government, 45% of the respondents described their relationship as “Good” while 21% described the relationship as “Bad” and another 34% described the relationship as “Acceptable”.

The local councils also maintain positive relations with the armed nationalistic opposition groups with 89% of the respondents describing their relationship with such groups as “Very Good” or “Good” while another 10% described the relationship as “Acceptable” and only 1% as “Bad”.

**The relationship between official opposition institutions and local councils are shaped by the following factors:

1.    Financial Support
2.    Political and international legitimacy
3.    Specific jobs and tasks
4.    Personal relations
Based on these factors, the positive relationship between the local councils and opposition institutions is explained as follows:
1.    Recognition by the local councils that any weakness in the role of the opposition institutions is due to outstanding factors, such as, regional and international state pressures more than shortcomings in the opposition itself.
2.    The local councils recognize the critical need for a central entity to organize the local councils and set their priorities. In addition, local councils need a political entity to provide a national platform to lead the political workings allowing the local councils to focus more on providing services and local administration.
3.    There are existing personal relationships between local council members and political opposition members as well as some of the local council members who are members of the official political opposition.
4.    Local councils depend partially on opposition institutions to communicate with supporters.

On another note, the relationship between local councils and the armed nationalistic opposition groups developed from a relationship of tension and conflicts of interest to a positive relationship with continued conflicts of interest but in varied forms. This change is best explained as follows:
1.    Armed nationalistic opposition groups recognizing the importance of the local council project in respect to administering civilian affairs and the need for the armed groups to assist local councils, which in turn increases the armed groups’ legitimacy.
2.    New councils and committees were formed to manage intervention by the armed groups into local council affairs giving the local councils increased independence and transparency when forming the council, choosing members, and setting priorities.

Local Councils and the Negotiation Process: Conditional Acceptance of a Political Solution Surrounded by Obstacles

The idea of a political solution gained wide spread political support, both regionally and internationally, especially following the increased security threats and exacerbating humanitarian crisis that were both spilling over the Syrian border. In the spirit of pushing the negotiation process forward the international community passed several UN resolutions and the Higher Negotiations Committee formed in Riyadh as a party to negotiate directly with the Assad regime instead of the Syrian National Coalition. The round of negotiations that followed these events did not produce any results in favor of moving towards a political solution. Since the local councils are the legitimate representatives of their localities and they have previous experiences negotiating directly with the regime, it was critical that we ask the local councils about their thoughts on the internationally sanctioned peace talks. 57% of the respondents accept on principle the idea of negotiating with the regime to reach a final solution while 38% rejected the idea and 5% did not give their opinion on the matter.  

It is notable that for local councils, accepting to negotiating with the regime for a final solution does not extend to the local councils accepting local truces with the regime. Two-thirds of the respondents rejected local truces with the regime because they believe those agreements fall in favor of the Assad regime while a little less than a quarter of the respondents expressed their support for local truces since the truces would revive the economies of besieged communities. Lastly, 15% of the respondents chose not to give their opinion on this matter.

**Since 2013, the Assad regime and its allies have engaged in a number of truces with local actors in areas outside of Assad regime control. These areas are strategically important for the regime, due to either geographic reasons or demographics, and this is clear since the truces are concentrated in the areas around the capitol, Homs, Dara’a and Hama. The number of truces are approximately – regardless if they are ongoing or ended – 27 and several more that are currently under negotiation in Quneitra, Rural Damascus, and Dara’a.

The regime resorted to limited truces as a temporary solution due to two basic factors:
1.    Military – Security: The regime found that it is unable to follow through on a complete military victory due to its lack of human resources and multiple active battlefronts in a number of distant geographic locations thus forcing the regime to seek out temporary truces in strategic areas while giving up control in others.
2.    Politics: The regime pushed forward a vision for an all-encompassing political solution built upon meeting demands including redistributing power roles and including representatives from various communities in governance. On a local level, the regime sought to meet mainly humanitarian demands. As such, the regime forced the hands of the local councils to accept truces so that they could secure marginal benefits, at the forefront of which was easing the human suffering caused by the ongoing conflict and a lack of international efforts to help in this regard. Local councils secured a number of things from the truces including lifting sieges, releasing of prisoners, stopping shelling, and reviving basic services.

As for those who refused the truces, two thirds of the sample, their position is best understood as follows:
1.    The negative impact from truces on local living conditions.
2.    The regime fails to abide by the terms of the truces, especially those that call for releasing prisoners, allowing humanitarian aid from entering the city, and free movement for residents of the locations agreed to the truce.
3.    There are no strong guarantees for implementing the truces and weak oversight mechanisms.
4.    There is a fear that the truces will have a negative impact on the revolutionary movement through infiltration and drowning the truce areas in various crises.  

Despite the local councils’ acceptance of truces with the regime, they did have a list of prioritized conditions that the regime should abide by in order for the councils to enter into agreement with the regime:
1.    A complete ceasefire and end to all aerial bombardment
2.    Pulling out all foreign militias.
3.    Releasing prisoners.
4.    Lifting the siege of besieged locations.
5.    Allowing humanitarian aid to enter targeted locations.

At the same time, the regime continued to place the fight against terrorism as the single priority and the only path towards a political solution. The opposition and the opposition forces insisted on their original demands including forming a transitional body with full executive powers to manage the transitional phase. In regards to the negotiable priorities, a majority of the local councils, 89%, believed that the entire negotiation process should focus on the issue of forming a transitional body with full executive powers while only 9% of the respondents felt that the negotiation process should focus on both the formation of a transitional body and the fight against terrorism.

In regards to the relationship between local councils and the Higher Negotiations Committee 55% of the respondents believe that the Higher Negotiations Committee represents the local councils while the remaining percentage of respondents took an opposite position.

 
As for the negotiation process and procedures, a majority of the councils expressed their support for negotiations but do not look positively at the processes and procedures on which the negotiations arestarted including a number of issues preventing the success of the negotiation process:
1.    The issue of Bashar Al Assad’s future.
2.    A lack of international pressure on the Assad regime to move seriously towards a political solution.
3.    The lack of a party that completely represents local residents in the negotiations.
4.    The lack of unity among nationalistic opposition forces.
5.    A weak performance by the political opposition.

**The acceptance of local councils to engage in negotiations with the Assad regime is based upon several factors:
1.    Local councils are convinced that it is too difficult for any side to achieve an outright military victory given the current political conditions after the Russian intervention with ongoing international pressure to seek out a political solution to the crisis.
2.    The local councils use the negotiations to gain some marginal benefits like humanitarian access and other conditions mentioned previously.
3.    The negotiations put the regime in a sensitive position and test the regime’s seriousness in reaching a political solution.

Local councils accept negotiations on a conditional basis and these conditions form a political breaking point for the local councils:
1.    A complete ceasefire and end to all military operations.
2.    Pulling out all foreign militias.
3.    Implementation of all the humanitarian demands made in UN resolutions including the release of political prisoners,  lifting the sieges on besieged areas, and allowing the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid.
4.    Lifting the siege of besieged locations.
5.    Allowing humanitarian aid to enter targeted locations.
6.    Maintaining the unity of Syrian territory and administering the country through a transitional body with no role for Bashar Al Assad.
7.    Restructuring the military and security institutions on nationalistic principles. Holding accountable all those responsible for committing crimes against the Syrian people.

The local councils tend to focus their demands during negotiations on security and military related requests instead of humanitarian requests. This is best understood as a compounding of the humanitarian crises resulting from the worsening security situation and thus stopping the escalating violence and military operations will give the local councils more opportunities to focus on providing services and address the growing humanitarian crises.
Furthermore, despite almost half of the sample supporting the Higher Negotiations Council the remainder of the sample, a significant percentage at 45%, which we cannot disregard, do not consider the Higher Negotiations Council as their representative. This is explained by two main factors:
1.    The way the Higher Negotiations Committee formed some councils felt marginalized.
2.    Weak communication between the Higher Negotiations Committee and the local councils, and the committee’s failure to update the local councils on the latest political developments since the local councils are the closest too and the legitimate representatives of local residents.

In the proposals for a political solution, the issue of the structure of the state and its administrative a structure vary between a decentralized political state and a decentralized administrative structure.  The survey results revealed that a little more than two thirds of the sample favored a decentralized administrative structure while approximately one third of the sample preferred a decentralized political state.

The majority of respondents, 98%, also expressed the need for a nationalized regulatory framework while only 2% rejected this idea.

**The local councils’ preference for a decentralized administrative structure as a concept for administrating the Syrian state stems from the local councils’ desire to maintain the state’s current borders and giving local communities greater powers in a decentralized administration that ensure their service, development and cultural needs. On the other hand, a decentralized political state will result in the creation of a weak political system comprised of several competing political blocs ending up in constant political turmoil. Also, local councils support the creation of a nationalized framework for organizing their work and are committed to participate on a national level with other councils; and councils are also convinced that they need an established and agreed upon nationalized framework in which to coordinate their priorities and to use a reference when distributing roles.

A Hopeful Role and Challenges in the Transitional Phase

The transitional administrative phase will depend on the local councils due to their legitimacy and their built up experience in managing various issues during the crisis.  As for their priorities during the transitional phase, we can list them as follows:
1.    Providing basic services
2.    Strengthening civil peace
3.    Providing local security and economic development
4.    Promoting the political process

The survey results also reveal that the local councils recognize that their role during the transitional phase depends on their ability to effectively deal with various challenges, including:
1.    Lack of resources
2.    Political polarization and social division
3.    Gaining legitimacy
4.    Security challenges

**The local councils’ prioritizing provision of services during the transitional phase is understood as a manifestation of the local councils’ considering their main role as a service provision role, just as we have seen in previous results. Also, recognize that services are the main need of local residents and the local councils’ successful delivery of services gives them more strengthen their legitimacy with the local population and then on a national level. Local councils also try to reestablish safety and security in their communities since a lack of which is the main obstacle preventing councils from fulfilling their service roles. In addition, local councils recognize that a major challenge during the transitional phase is a lack of resources, which explains the great demand for services that would bring stability for local residents.

Conclusion

Local councils assume three main roles:
1.    Service role
2.    Political role
3.    Development role

Despite the survey showing that the local councils operating in areas under control of nationalistic opposition groups preferred to focus on service provision, there are instances where local councils did assume political roles. In some cases, local councils published statements in which they took political positions reflecting those of the local population who gave the councils their legitimacy; they attended political activities; organized protests; conducted community reconciliations; conducting localized negotiations with the regime or its allies; and offering their opinions on the national political negotiations.

In light of the political movement to push for negotiations that reach a final political solution for the ongoing crisis it is of great importance to increase the role of local councils and invest in them to strengthen the negotiating strength of the opposition. This will in turn give the political process momentum and protect the results of the political process from a counter revolutionary movement attempting to stop the revolution. It is easy for any observer to notice that local councils have a great potential to establish political groups with significant grass roots support exceeding that of any existing political groupings.

To achieve what we just described there must be an immediate and strong show of support to increase the resources and enhance the capabilities of local councils enabling them to withstand various challenges by:
1.    offering financial and institutional advice on human resources capacity building and training;
2.     And improving the local councils’ relationships with revolutionary institutions, both political and military, based upon properly identified roles and the proper distribution of responsibilities.

Additional part of Survey Sample

Methodology

1.    Sample Pool
We took our sample from amongst the various provincial and related councils located in areas outside Assad regime, Islamic State, Syrian or Kurdish (PYD) control. And especially taking into consideration the councils’ abilities to conduct administrative tasks in their areas.  
2.    Sample Size and Distribution
The sample size is a total of 105 out of 427 local councils including 62 council presidents, 32 executive council members, 11 local council members, and covers Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb, Dara’a, Quneitra, Homs, Hama, and Lattakia. We chose the number of sub-council members in proportion to the number of sub-councils from province to province.  
3.    Sample Reliability
We took great care to formulate the right questions and present them in an objective way to all the respondents regardless of their personal opinions or their expectations about the survey’s results.
4.    Survey Time Frame
Collecting the entire sample took one month. We contacted local councils between 1-1-2016 and 2016-2-3 and then reviewed the questionnaires, entered the data, and evaluated the results.
5.    Analytical Methodology
 The analytical process is split into two sections accordingly with the stated goal of better understanding local council opinions and their knowledge of their service and political roles. In the first part of the analysis, we take into consideration the specific issues presented in the survey, such as the local councils’ influence on the political process, their opinions about political and revolutionary performance, and local councils’ political leanings. In the second part of the analysis, we focus on the administrative roles of local councils and the level of their commitment to the most important principles and responsibilities.