Media Appearance

Navar Saban, a military analyst at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, said an imminent operation is unlikely, due to the increasing cost of a military move.

“Logistically speaking, it doesn’t make sense to launch another operation in an area that has this many complexities, including a Russian presence, Daesh cells and Syrian regime operations. Even if they win, it will bear significant costs for troops on the ground because of security problems in northwestern Afrin and northwestern Idlib provinces,” he told Arab News.

However, Saban also said the visit is unlikely to be random.

“It is for coordination on the ground to manage clashes with different actors. But it wouldn’t trigger a new operation in the short term,” he said.

Source: https://bit.ly/3f3yPj7

Published in Media Appearance

This report examines, in numbers and charts, the developments in the northern region of Syria after the commencement of operation “Peace Spring" by the Turkish military and the Syrian National Army (SNA). The report highlights the following points:

  • The current map of control and influence in northern Syria and other provinces that are geographically connected to the north;
  • The map of the international and local actors in general, without detailing their influence or the extent of their control;
  • Who is controlling the most important resources and infrastructure in the northern region (the most important international roads - International border crossings and their situation).

(Who's/What) controlling the Syrian north region

Map 1: Updated areas of control and influence in the Northern region of Syria – 12 December 2019


  USA France Russia Iran Turkey
Al-Hassaka Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Al-Raqqa Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Aleppo - - Yes Yes Yes
Idlib - - Yes Yes Yes

Table 1: International direct/indirect presence s in the Northern provinces in Syria – (General look)

  Province Area km2 Regime Forces Joint area (Regime & SDF) SDF Opposition Forces (SNA) HTS
Al-Hassaka 23.334 km² 4% 5% 83% 8% -
Al-Raqqa 19.616 km² 36% 12% 42% 10% -
Aleppo 18.482 km² 51% 11% 9% 23% 6%
Idlib 6.097 km² 22% - - 33% 45%

Table 2: Local forces updated percentage of control in the north provinces in Syria

  M4 Length (Km) Regime Forces Joint area (Regime & SDF) SDF Opposition Forces (SNA) HTS
Al-Hassaka 230 Km 37% 5% 58% - -
Al-Raqqa 103 Km 76% 24% - - -
Aleppo 195 Km 22% 30% 20% 17% 11%
Idlib 73 Km 14% - - 33% 57%

Table 3: Who's controlling M4 road from Iraq (Kurdistan) border to the administrative borders between Idlib and Hama provinces

  Province Between Local Forces International Influence Crossing situation
Yarubiyah Al-Hassaka Syria-Kurdistan (Iraq) SDF USA Open (Aid- US military)
Simalka Al-Hassaka Syria-Kurdistan (Iraq) SDF USA Open (Aid-Civilians-US military- Journalist)
Al-Qamishli Al-Hassaka Syria-Turkey Regime Forces Russia Closed
Amouda Al-Hassaka Syria-Turkey Joint Presence (Regime/SDF) Russia Closed
Ras al-Ayn Al-Hassaka Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid- TSK) ([1])
Tall Abyad Al-Raqqa Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid- TSK-Journalist)
Kobani Aleppo Syria-Turkey Joint Presence (Regime/SDF) Russia/Iran Closed
Jarabulus Aleppo Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid-Civilians- Journalist)
Al-Ra’e Aleppo Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid-TSK)
Bab al-Salma Aleppo Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid-Syrian Interim Government)
Hemame Aleppo Syria-Turkey SNA (Opposition) Turkey Open (Aid)

Table 4: Situation of the international crossing border in the Northern provinces in Syria

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