Executive Summary

This report provides an overview of the key events in Syria during the month of June 2023, focusing on political, security, and economic developments. It examines the developments at different levels.

• Security and Military sector, the report highlights the following: 1) Opposition held areas in northwest Syria witnessed intensification of Russian strikes. 2) Rise in ISIS security operations in eastern Syria. 3) Increase in assassination victims, and clashes between local factions and militias associated with the regime forces in Daraa.
• Political sector, the report highlights the regime's ongoing efforts to foster closer ties with the Arab world through economic agreements, considering the Western resistance towards normalizing relations or lifting sanctions without substantial measures undertaken by the regime.
• Economic sector, the report focuses on the persistent depletion and devaluation of the Syrian pound, a consequence of the economic and financial policies pursued by the Assad regime. In the meantime, local councils and civil organizations in northwestern Syria have successfully concluded the implementation of numerous early recovery projects across several critical sectors, with particular emphasis on the industrial sector.

High indicators of security instability

In northwestern Syria, both the regime and Russia have conducted aerial and artillery bombardments in several areas in Idlib. This ongoing security and military complexity can be used as pressure to reach understandings or technical agreements, particularly due to the increased military capabilities of local actors in both regime-controlled and opposition-controlled areas. Simultaneously, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham security forces have arrested over 80 individuals accused of engaging in dealings and espionage for hostile parties. Among those detained are notable figures from the General Security Agency and certain military brigades.

In northeastern Syria, ISIS has claimed responsibility for more than 24 attacks targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their allies. These attacks resulted in the death of 11 people and left 26 others wounded. The following charts provides a comparison of ISIS attacks against the SDF between April and June for the years 2022 and 2023.

The Autonomous Administration in northeastern Syria has made a significant announcement. They have decided to initiate public prosecutions for approximately 10,000 ISIS operatives who are currently detained by them. This decision was prompted by the international community's delayed response to the autonomous administration's requests for assistance in repatriating their detained citizens. The trials of these operatives will be conducted in accordance with a local anti-terrorism law that was developed in 2022. While the ISIS operatives on trial will have the right to appoint their own lawyers, it has not been clarified whether the court will appoint lawyers for them. It's important to note that the death penalty is not applicable in northeastern Syria. Furthermore, Turkey persistently refused to acknowledge the Autonomous Administration, labeling it as a "terrorist" entity associated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). In line with this stance, Turkey continued its strikes against the administration's leaders and key figures. Most recently, Turkish drones conducted an airstrike on a vehicle transporting the leaders of the “Qamishlo Provincial Council|” in the eastern part of Qamishli. The strike caused the death of the co-chair of the Council, the deputy co-president, and the driver, while the co-chairman of the council, "Kabi Chamoun," sustained severe injuries as a result of the drone strike.

Regarding Daraa, ongoing evident signs indicating the failure of the regime's efforts for reconciliations and settlements. The notable indicators include:

• Ongoing assassinations: A total of 30 individuals were killed in targeted assassinations during the month. Additionally, eight people lost their lives in other security incidents.
• Clash between local factions and pro-Assad militias near the Naseeb crossing, situated along the Syrian Jordanian border.
• Continuation of drug smuggling operations across the Jordanian border, either through the Naseeb crossing or the border strip.

The Assad regime between Arab rapprochement and western rejection

During the month of June 2023, the Syrian regime recently made several diplomatic moves. They appointed an ambassador to the Arab League, and their foreign minister visited Iraq and Saudi Arabia, resulting in an agreement to resume economic cooperation between Syria and Arab countries. Additionally, Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian leader, met with the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. During their meeting, al-Assad emphasized the importance of not politicizing the return of refugees and providing the necessary resources for reconstructing damaged structures and rehabilitating service facilities.

However, these statements by Assad also highlight the regime's refusal to address key security concerns regarding the safe return of refugees. These concerns include stopping security prosecutions against refugees, controlling, and restructuring the security services, and releasing detainees while reforming the judicial system.

It is likely that in the future, the Assad regime will continue to exploit the refugee issue to pressure the international community. Their aim is to achieve economic gains and the lifting of sanctions imposed on Syria.

In a parallel development, Canada and the Netherlands jointly lodged a lawsuit against the Assad regime at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. The lawsuit accuses the regime of torture and violations of international law, highlighting the ongoing stance of Western countries rejecting any form of normalization with the Syrian regime government.

During the recent 20th round of the Astana meetings, the final statement included several significant points. One of the key highlights was:

• Rejection of unilateral sanctions that violate international law, international humanitarian law, and the UN Charter. This statement implies the potential development of a Turkish stance favoring the lifting or easing of sanctions on the Assad regime.
• The participants at the Astana meetings expressed their approval of the regime's consent to allow aid entry through the al-Rai and Bab al-Salama crossings. This reaffirmed their opposition to any attempts to bypass the regime and Russia's approval after the extension expires in August 2023.

Current economic policies increasing Syrian’s suffering

In the Regime areas, The Syrian pound continues to experience massive declines against the US dollar, reaching a rate of 9,250 SYP per dollar. These declines are a result of the economic and financial policies implemented by the regime government. To restore stability to the currency, the Monetary and Credit Council issued a decision allowing individuals entering Syria to bring in financial revenues up to $500,000. However, those leaving the country are restricted from taking out more than $10,000 or its equivalent in foreign currency. Living conditions in regime areas remain challenging, with the population enduring rising prices during Eid al-Adha. Price increases ranged from 15% to 45%, with notable examples such as the cost of "30 eggs" reaching 30,000 SYP in Daraa and 34,000 SYP in Damascus. The price of sacrificial animals during Eid al-Adha reached 3 million SYP in certain areas, recording a 6 time increase for 2022 price. Reports indicate a significant decrease in foreign remittances to Syria during Eid al-Adha compared to Eid al-Fitr. The regime government refrained from providing any financial grants or salary increases prior to Eid al-Adha. The regime's Ministry of Finance estimated inflation rates for 2022 at 10-0% and projected a range of 10-4.7% for 2023. It is important to note that the inflation rate has reached approximately 16,000% between 2011 and 2023.

In Opposition areas, both the interim government and the salvation government have established the price of durum wheat at $330 per ton, and the price for soft wheat is set at $285 per ton. On the other hand, in areas under the Autonomous Administration, the price of durum wheat is set at $430 per ton, while in regime-controlled areas, it is set at $222 per ton.

This difference in pricing may discourage farmers in opposition areas from selling their crops to the regime or motivate them to consider alternative crops that offer higher profits, given the current pricing conditions. As part of early recovery initiatives, local councils and civil society organizations have successfully completed various projects across multiple sectors. For instance, the local council in Mare' inaugurated a new industrial city consisting of 50 operational factories and 100 others in the process of being equipped. In the city of al-Ra'i, a significant infrastructure development project, involving the establishment of a major transformer for the industrial zone, has been implemented to facilitate future projects.

In the Autonomous Administration, citizens in Hasakah protested the shortage of domestic gas, which led to its price doubling on the black market to 150,000 Syrian pounds. In Amuda market, remittance and currency exchange companies closed in objection to new licensing requirements that impose financial guarantees and office conditions beyond their capabilities. Additionally, the Customs Department has implemented a new customs system. The updated fees for shipments of vegetables and fruits are as follows:

The fire brigade in al-Hasakah province has reported crop fire damage in 2023. Approximately 370 dunums of land in the countryside of al-Hasakah city and 418 dunums in al-Qamishli city have been affected.

General summary

During May 2023, the majority of Arab countries moved towards fully restoring relations with the Assad regime, leading to Bashar al-Assad attending the Arab summit in Saudi Arabia, breaking a decade-long isolation. The Syrian regime saw this as the official end of the regional and international isolation that was imposed against the Syrian regime. Regarding security development in the southern region, 2 Jordanian fighter jets conducted raids, eliminating one of the big local drug dealer in as-Suwayda's eastern countryside. While in the Northwest region, Turkish security forces raided the hideout for an ISIS cell, leading to the arrest of several ISIS members, including a high commander known as “The Wali of Turkey”, also during the same month Turkey in corporation with the US, imposed new sanctions on individuals financing “Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham” in Syria.Economically, livelihood situation in different areas of control is still in decline, as the month of May witnessed a new price increase for most commodities.

Syrian regimes return to Arab League

The most prominent political event in May was the return of the Assad regime to the Arab League, marking a new stage of formal Arab engagement with Syria after a decade-long hiatus. This Arab rapprochement focuses on security issues, counterterrorism, humanitarian issues, particularly refugees, and the political process. However, the evolution of Arab engagement largely depends on the regime's response to political developments and its willingness to make concessions it has avoided over the years. Assad is relying on Arab openness as a step to pressure the United States and the European Union to ease or lift sanctions on his regime, claiming they hinder progress in the Arab solution initiative. Regionally, the visit of the Iranian President to Syria was significant in its timing, just days before the Arab League's decision to formally reconnect with the regime. The visit reaffirmed Iran's strong influence in Syria and preempted any attempts to diminish it.

In summary, Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime is part of a regional policy to deescalate tensions, in addition to addressing security issues related to the Syrian crisis.

Eliminations and reconciliations

In May 2023, Israel carried out aggressive air strikes on Damascus and Aleppo provinces, hitting security sites near their respective international airports and causing temporary shutdowns. This occurred as Israel's Defense Minister, “Yoav Gallant,” declared an increase in attacks aimed at Iran's presence in Syria.

Meanwhile, Turkish security forces succeeded in arresting /4/ ISIS members, including the self-proclaimed (Wali of Turkey). This happened after the Turkish forces had neutralized ISIS leader, “Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi”, in late April. Also in the Northwestern region, and as part of the Turkish collaborative efforts against terrorism, the US and Turkish treasury departments imposed combined sanctions on 2 individuals tied to financing of extremist factions in Syria.

In Northeastern Syria, an IED’s killed “Kribos”, a leader in SDF. Furthermore, the Asayish security force, arrested 2 individuals involved in drug trafficking.

In Southern Syria, the Regime government initiated a new settlement in 45 towns, this campaign coincides with an ongoing conflict between the Military Security and the 8^th Brigade, and a fragile security situation, also this settlement campaign is considered the 3^rd one in Daraa since 2018.

Meanwhile, Jordanian fighters eliminated a drug dealer in the Eastern countryside of As-Suwayda shortly after Jordanian Foreign Minister “Ayman Safadi” declared the possibility of using military force to combat drugs, which is an indication of the possibility of resorting to force options in addition to economic incentives in the Arab way of dealing with the Syrian regime, including drugs production and smuggling.

Reviving a long dead economy

In hopes of capitalizing on improving Arab relations, the Assad regime is gearing up for the tourism season, with a particular focus on attracting visitors from the Gulf countries. Tourism, which was the second-largest source of foreign income after oil exports, generating approximately $3.9 billion in 2010, is seen as a vital avenue for bolstering Syria's economy. Estimates suggest that about /2.5/ million people, including /700,000/ tourists, might visit Syria this year.

Additionally, Bashar al-Assad issued a law exempting cow imports from taxes and fees for the next 5 years. This move is aimed at mitigating the Syrian crisis' impact on the livestock sector, high meat prices, and decreasing livestock numbers. However, this approach, which is characteristic of the old regime, might benefit corrupt merchants and warlords while negatively affecting ordinary people's living conditions, it's seen as a way to address economic issues primarily through increased imports.

In Northeastern Syria, the Autonomous Administration announced the pricing of wheat and barley for the 2023 agricultural season, at /43/ cents per kilogram for wheat and /35/ cents per kilogram for barley. This is the 1st time the Administration set crop prices in $ instead of SYP due to the declining value of the latter, causing unprecedented inflation for goods and services. In Hasakah province, (ampere) prices rose by 30% due to a reduction in the subsidized diesel amount sold to generator owners by the Administration. The closure of the “Semalka-Fishkhabour” crossing between Northeastern Syria and Kurdistan led to significant slowdowns in construction and a halt in some projects due to a shortage of cement, and /50/ kilogram bag of cement reached a black-market price of /120,000/ SYP, up from /85,000/ Sp before the crossing was closed.

In opposition held-areas, the decline in the value of the Turkish lira against the dollar led to deteriorating living conditions in Idlib and a slowdown in market transactions. Changes in the lira-dollar exchange rate quickly affect local markets due to imports mainly coming through Turkey. Meat prices doubled, with one kilogram of lamb now costing /190/ TL, up from /80/ TL two months ago. This increase is due to livestock smuggling to regime-controlled and autonomous areas, in addition to rising feed costs.

The Economy and Resources Ministry of the "Salvation" Government in Idlib set the purchase price for first-grade hard wheat at $320 per ton (/32/ cents per kilogram). This year's initial wheat production is estimated at /99,000/ tons.

Work continues on paving main and secondary roads in Azaz, al-Bab, and Jarabulus, as part of early recovery efforts. New schools, like Al-Khwarizmi in Azaz and Shariah school in Afrin, are being established, while others in Janders are being renovated. Furthermore, Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu and Gaziantep Mayor Fatma Sahin laid the foundation for a project to build 240,000 homes on farmland near Al-Ghandoura.

Executive Summary

This report provides an overview of the key events in Syria during April, focusing on political, security, and economic developments. One significant political event was the Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime, highlighted by the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Damascus. This visit marked the end of a decade-long official boycott and was accompanied by the exchange of ambassadors between Damascus and Tunisia, as well as the reception of Assad's foreign minister in Egypt and Algeria. Despite these political developments, the shortage of essential goods and high prices remained major problems for the Syrian population. This issue was particularly pronounced during the month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, with prices rising by 100% compared to the previous year. On the security front, there were no significant changes in the Syrian arena. Israeli airstrikes continued to target military and security sites associated with Iranian militias. Additionally, Ankara announced the killing of an ISIS leader.

Arab rapprochement with the Regime: “Swift Progress”

During April, the Syrian political scene revolved around the Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime. This included significant developments such as:

• Tunisia reopening its embassy in Damascus.
• The regime's Foreign Minister, Faisal Miqdad, visiting Egypt and Algeria.
• The Saudi foreign minister's visit to Damascus after a decade-long official boycott.

These visits were part of an Arab diplomatic effort led by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates to engage with the Assad regime. This engagement came with various Arab demands, including political reforms and the establishment of a safe environment for the return of refugees, but at the same time it became clear, that the Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime lacked a clear roadmap for achieving desired outcomes. The path of reconciliation with Turkey also faced obstacles as the regime insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory as a condition for restoring relations. Ankara, however, refused to include this condition in the current agenda.Meanwhile, key figures within the Opposition maintained their opposition to normalizing relations with Assad. They held meetings with European ambassadors and envoys in Qatar, capitalizing on the Western discourse that emphasizes non-normalization until UN resolutions are implemented.The "Autonomous Administration" focused on sending messages to regional countries aligned with the Assad regime. These messages aim to showcase the administration's ability, as a local Syrian entity, to play influential roles in areas of common interest, such as counterterrorism, preventing drug exports, and facilitating the return of refugees. The messages include the following key points:

• Launching the "Peaceful Resolution to the Syrian Crisis" initiative, urging the "Damascus government" to take urgent actions to expedite a solution.
• The readiness of the forces of the Autonomous Administration to join the Syrian army, as stated by SDF commander Mazloum Abdi.
• The announcement of the Autonomous Administration's preparedness to receive Syrian refugees from Lebanon in coordination with the UN and the EU.

Security incidents: “Limited Impact”

In April, Israel kept on targeting locations with Iranian influence and control. These strikes focused on security and military sites in various regions, including Damascus and its surrounding, al-Suwayda, Daraa, Quneitra, and Homs.Meanwhile, the International Coalition assassinated a prominent ISIS leader, Khaled Eid Ahmed al-Jubouri in Idlib, al-Jabouri is from Iraq, and responsible for planning terrorist attacks in Europe. Turkish intelligence also reported the assassination of another ISIS leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, in a military operation conducted in northwestern Syria.Daraa witnessed a series of assassinations resulting in the loss of 32 lives, with an additional 17 individuals losing their lives in separate security incidents. This highlights the ongoing state of security chaos that the Assad regime and its allies have been unable to resolve.

Shortage of basic materials and high prices

In the Regime-controlled areas issue of escalating commodities prices continued to burden the Syrian population, particularly during the month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Prices surged by 100% compared to the previous year's Ramadan. The situation was compounded by the Syrian pound's depreciation, reaching a rate of 8,250 SYP against the dollar, while the Central Bank's ability to intervene in the market declined. In April, the regime government implemented several decisions, including:

• Increasing prices and fees for transporting materials and goods via trucks.
• The Telecommunications and Post Regulatory Authority (TPRA) raised the fares for cellular services by 30% to 35%, and fixed telecommunications services by 35% to 50%.
• The regime's government set the purchase price of wheat at 2,300 SYP per kilo of wheat. However, the production cost is around 2,050 SYP, resulting in a narrow profit margin of only 150 SYP per kilo for farmers.

The depreciation of the Syrian pound in Autonomous Administration-controlled areas has had repercussions across various sectors. In the electricity sector, generator owners raised the prices of amperes to 8,000 SYP, even though the municipalities of Qamishli and al-Haskalah had set the price at 7,000 SYP per ampere. Additionally, the region is still experiencing a shortage of sugar, which led to a price increase. During this month, the Administration, under Russian supervision, reached an agreement with the regime concerning "drinking water and electricity." As per the agreement, the regime will supply the city of Manbij and its surrounding areas with drinking water from the Babiri station in Khafsa. In return, the Autonomous Administration will provide the regime with 30 megawatts of electricity per day from the Tishreen and Tabqa Dam, along with 50 oil tanks per day. In Opposition-controlled areas, the local council in the city of Azaz demanded a reduction in the price of kilowatts from the electricity company AK ENERGY. The company responded by reducing the value of electricity subscriptions starting from April 10. However, despite this adjustment, people and local councils continued to express their dissatisfaction as the new price remained high and not in line with living conditions. Regarding recovery projects in the region, the Trust Fund for the Reconstruction of Syria announced the delivery of 400 tons of fertilizer to two thousand vegetable farms and 850 tons of fertilizer to two thousand wheat farms.

Regional efforts to mitigate Feb-6 earthquake damage

The Qatar Fund for Development has announced an agreement with the Turkish Presidency of Disaster and Emergency Management (AFAD) to support the establishment of an integrated city in northern Syria. This city aims to accommodate 70,000 people. Additionally, the Qatar Development Organization and the United States Agency for International Development have signed a funding agreement to support the Syrian Civil Defense Organization's essential operations. The "salvation" government in Idlib has reduced the price of domestic gas cylinders by 90 cents (around 17 Turkish liras), bringing it down from $13.5 to $12.6. Idlib National Hospital is also planning to distribute free medicines intended for cancer patients. The conditions for cancer patients in northwestern Syria have worsened as Turkish hospitals stopped receiving them after the earthquake disaster on February 6. The Syrian Response Coordinators/ منسقو استجابة سوريةteam has issued the final report on the damage caused by the February 6 earthquake in Syria and Turkey. The report reveals that:

• Over 1.8 million people were affected in northwestern Syria, with 4,256 civilian casualties, around 12,000 injured, and 67 individuals still missing.
• The number of displaced people has reached 300,000, with more than 65% of them being children, women, and individuals with special needs.
• Economic losses from the earthquake are estimated at $1.95 billion, including damage to public and private sectors and other facilities.
• The earthquake also caused significant damage to educational institutions (433 schools), medical facilities (73), and housing units (136).